Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
In percentage terms, and that matters to borrowers used to cheap rates, the current rise in mortgage rates is unprecedented.
Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish
Largest Mortgage Rate Swings in History
- In 18 months, the year-over-year percentage change in rates went from -27.8 percent to positive 80.4 percent, a swing of 108.2 percentage points.
- The December 2020 decline of 27.8 percent is the largest decline in history.
- The June 2022 year-over-year rise of 80.4% is the largest rise in history.
Monthly Average Mortgage Rate Percent
Mortgage rates from Freddie Mac via St. Louis Fed, chart by Mish
Highest Rate in 11 Years
5.37 percent is not a high rate historically, but it is the highest rate since 5.42 percent in June 2009.
Moreover, one cannot get anything close to that rate now. That's a Freddie Mac weekly average rate from early June and it is very stale.
Mortgage News Daily Rates
Chart from Mortgage News Daily annotations by Mish.
As of June 21, the average mortgage rate is 6.07 percent, up from 3.26 percent a year ago.
According to Freddie Mac, the annual average commitment rate across all of 2021 was 2.96%. Rates have now doubled.
New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions
On May 24, I reported New Home Sales Plunge 22.5% In April, 16.6% From Deep Negative Revisions
New home sales have peaked this cycle and the bottom is nowhere in sight.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales courtesy of Trading Economics annotations by Mish
Existing Home Sales Skid Another 3.4 Percent in May
Existing home sales declined for the fourth month in May. Sales are down 16.8 percent since January.
Existing home sales are recorded at closing, new homes at signing. May sales reflect March and April's mortgage rates, not June's.
Expect sales to get worse, much worse.
For discussion, please see Existing Home Sales Skid Another 3.4 Percent in May, Down Fourth Month
Note that the Seventh Largest US Importer Cuts Shipments in Half, Shipping Rates Crash
With mortgage rates up 2.7 percentage points this year and doubling from the average for 2021, this bust is just getting started and with it the demand for goods.
This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
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