The commodities feed: Spot Gold tops $4,000/oz for first time

ING Global Economics Team ING Economic and Financial Analysis

Spot Gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens.

Metals – Gold breaks above $4,000/oz

Spot gold extended its rally to top $4,000/oz for the first time this morning, as concerns over the US economy and a government shutdown boost demand for safe havens.

December futures in New York, the most active contract, already surpassed the $4,000/oz level in yesterday’s trading session.

Gold has staged a historic rally, doubling in less than two years, spurred by central bank buying as it diversifies away from the US dollar, President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy, and conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine.

Meanwhile, investors are adding gold ETFs at a rapid pace. Total known ETF holdings for gold reported inflows of 30.2koz for a ninth consecutive session to 97.4moz as of yesterday. Year-to-date net inflows stand at 14moz, taking the total gold ETF holdings to the highest level since September 2022.

Energy – EIA increases US supply estimates

NYMEX WTI continues to swing upward this morning for a fourth straight session with prices trading fairly above $62/bbl, following a mixed inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Meanwhile, recent reports suggest that rising Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia’s oil refineries have cut down the country’s domestic crude processing while leading to a surge in overseas flows of unprocessed oil.

Numbers overnight from the API show that crude oil inventories increased by 2.8m barrels over the last week, well above the average market forecast for a build of 497k barrels. However, stocks at the WTI delivery hub, Cushing, fell by 1.2m barrels. Looking at refined products, gasoline inventories fell by 1.2m barrels, while distillate stocks declined by 1.8m barrels. The decline in refined product stocks provided mixed signals on energy consumption in the country. The more widely followed EIA weekly inventory report will be released later today.

Meanwhile, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its latest Short Term Energy Outlook yesterday, raising its US crude oil production growth estimates for both this year and next. The EIA now expects US crude oil production to average around 13.53m b/d in 2025, compared to a previous estimate of around 13.44m b/d. For 2026, the EIA expects US oil supply to average around 13.51m b/d, compared to its previous forecast of 13.3m b/d. On the other hand, the EIA estimates US petroleum consumption to remain flat at around 20.5m b/d compared to its earlier expectations of consumption increasing to 20.6m b/d in 2026.

Agriculture - WASDE expectations

The USDA is scheduled to release its monthly WASDE report tomorrow although the ongoing US government shutdown might cause delays. The initial market expectations suggest that the agency could increase its US corn ending stocks by 126m bushels to 2,236m bushels, while soybean ending stocks are expected to rise by 17m bushels to 317m bushels. Wheat could see an uptick in ending stock estimates to 880m bushels (+36m bushels).

Turning to global supply, the agency could revise its Argentina corn output estimates to 53.4mt (+0.4mt), while keeping soybean output estimates unchanged at 48.5mt. Meanwhile, Brazil’s corn and soybean production estimates are expected to increase to 132.3mt (+1.3mt) and 175.3mt (+0.3mt) respectively. Global ending stocks for corn are projected to increase from 281.4mt estimated in September to 283.3mt, whilst for soybeans the ending stock estimates are expected to rise to 124.6mt from 124mt.

Ukraine’s Agriculture Ministry reported that the Ukrainian winter grain plantations fell by 5% year-on-year to 3.6m hectares as of 7 October. This was 50% of the projected area. The decrease was largely driven by winter wheat, where plantations decreased by 12% YoY to 2.3m hectares for the period mentioned above, as an intense drought has left the planting area too dry for sowing.

Read the original analysis: The commodities feed: Spot Gold tops $4,000/oz for first time

Author

ING Global Economics Team

ING Economic and Financial Analysis

From Trump to trade, FX to Brexit, ING’s global economists have it covered. Go to ING.com/THINK to stay a step ahead.

EUR/USD trims gains, hovers around 1.1900 post-US data

EUR/USD trades slightly on the back foot around the 1.1900 region in a context dominated by the resurgence of some buying interest around the US Dollar on turnaround Tuesday. Looking at the US docket, Retail Sales disappointed expectations in December, while the ADP 4-Week Average came in at 6.5K.

GBP/USD comes under pressure near 1.3680

The better tone in the Greenback hurts the risk-linked complex on Tuesday, prompting GBP/USD to set aside two consecutive days of gains and trade slightly on the defensive below the 1.3700 mark. Investors, in the meantime, keep their attention on key UK data due later in the week.

Gold loses some traction, still above $5,000

Gold faces some selling pressure on Tuesday, surrendering part of its recent two-day advance although managing to keep the trade above the $5,000 mark per troy ounce. The daily pullback in the precious metal comes in response to the modest rebound in the US Dollar, while declining US Treasury yields across the curve seem to limit the downside.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.

Dollar drops and stocks rally: The week of reckoning for US economic data

Following a sizeable move lower in US technology Stocks last week, we have witnessed a meaningful recovery unfold. The USD Index is in a concerning position; the monthly price continues to hold the south channel support.

Bitcoin Cash trades lower, risks dead-cat bounce amid bearish signals

Bitcoin Cash (BCH) trades in the red below $522 at the time of writing on Tuesday, after multiple rejections at key resistance. BCH’s derivatives and on-chain indicators point to growing bearish sentiment and raise the risk of a dead-cat bounce toward lower support levels.