Technical outlook: Gold, EUR/USD, USD/JPY [Video]

Fed Minutes – Gold  

Minutes from the September 15–16 FOMC meeting will be released on Wednesday. Although the Federal Reserve previously delivered a 25-bps rate increase with dot-plot projections signaling another potential hike by December, soft September payroll data, adding just 29,000 jobs, has dampened market expectations for an immediate October adjustment. If the meeting minutes adopt a hawkish tone by stressing persistent inflation risks, loose financial conditions, or the necessity of further policy tightening, Treasury yields and the US dollar are likely to extend their gains, placing renewed pressure on gold. Conversely, a more cautious assessment would support bullion by reinforcing expectations of an extended Fed pause.

Gold currently trades near 4,150. While recent support has stemmed from cooler PCE inflation and sluggish labor data, dynamic dollar strength and elevated real yields continue to act as major headwinds. A technical breakdown beneath the 4,120 support floor would confirm a bearish bias, exposing the 4,000 psychological handle ahead of 3,940. On the upside, a sustained movement above 4,200 would reactivate buying momentum, with the RSI and stochastic indicators currently pointing higher.

ECB Minutes – EUR/USD

Hawkish messaging followed the European Central Bank’s September 10 monetary policy decision. However, swap markets currently indicate only a 21% probability of an October rate increase. Even though early tightening measures gave the ECB flexibility to pause until December, headline eurozone inflation hovering near 4.0%, alongside rising core CPI metrics keep an October hike possible.

EUR/USD is trading near 1.1200 after dipping toward a fresh multi-month trough of 1.1160. French political and fiscal uncertainty, coupled with broad greenback demand, continues to cap the single currency. An unambiguously hawkish ECB account could ignite a short-covering relief rally toward 1.1250. Conversely, evidence of limited interest in consecutive rate hikes would send the pair toward 1.1060 support.

Japan wage growth – USD/JPY

Japan’s August wage data will be released on Wednesday. Following a previous expansion of 4.7%, market consensus estimates a moderation toward 3.7%. A downside miss would weaken expectations for accelerated Bank of Japan tightening, likely lifting USDJPY back above the 159.00 threshold. A stronger-than-projected reading would bolster the yen by reinforcing the case for another BoJ interest rate increase.

USD/JPY is currently consolidating below 158.00, where heightened intervention warnings from Japanese officials temper aggressive upside positioning. A drop below the key 156.50 barrier would confirm the short-term bearish structure. Meanwhile, technical oscillators reflect a period of sideways momentum.