Sweden: Riksbank Minutes June 2026

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

The full minutes did not really provide any major surprises, although it is worth emphasizing that the minutes were more dovish than the MPR. However, given the developments post the cut-off date for the draft report (i.e. The MoU between US and Iran), this dovish shift makes good sense.

The balance within the Board remains the same, with Thedéen and Seim as the relatively more hawkish members, whereas Bunge, Hjelm and Jansson sticks to the dovish camp. Noteworthy, both Jansson and Hjelm argues that the policy rate path could have been kept unchanged, although they did not enter any formal reservations.

Inflation risks are still seen as elevated and highly contingent on global factors such as geopolitics. And on top of that, domestic forward-looking indicators have started to signal broader inflationary pressures. However, a majority of the Board see the benign starting position, with below-target inflation and cited low resource utilisation, as arguments for a wait-and-see approach being the most prudent policy option.

In all, the Minutes indicate some downside risk to our call of hikes in September and December.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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