Packed week, with central banks in focus
Market Movers ahead
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A host of important data is due out of the US next week, as well as the November FOMC meeting taking place. The meeting is not expected to yield much news.
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We still expect PCE inflation to be subdued, whereas the labour market report for October should come out strong, due largely to the September hurricanes.
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We expect the Bank of England to raise the Bank Rate by 25bp to 0.50%.
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Preliminary Q3 GDP for the euro area is expected to show a continued recovery, albeit with slightly lower growth than in Q2.
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Euro area headline inflation should have ticked down to 1.4% y/y in October (September: 1.5% y/y), due mainly to energy price base effects, leaving core inflation unchanged.
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We expect the Bank of Japan to keep monetary policy ultra-loose.
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Norwegian house prices are likely to attract some attention. We do not expect the recent trend of falling prices to come to an end.
Global macro and market themes
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Central bankers are keen to put the urge for a normalisation of policy on hold for now with the ECB delivering a dovish taper; Scandi central banks are in wait-and-see mode.
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Commodity prices are on the rise but policy makers need to see ‘effective' labour market slack erosion before moving towards an ‘exit' from unconventional policies.
Author
Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.
