Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers ahead
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A host of important data is due out of the US next week, as well as the November FOMC meeting taking place. The meeting is not expected to yield much news.
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We still expect PCE inflation to be subdued, whereas the labour market report for October should come out strong, due largely to the September hurricanes.
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We expect the Bank of England to raise the Bank Rate by 25bp to 0.50%.
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Preliminary Q3 GDP for the euro area is expected to show a continued recovery, albeit with slightly lower growth than in Q2.
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Euro area headline inflation should have ticked down to 1.4% y/y in October (September: 1.5% y/y), due mainly to energy price base effects, leaving core inflation unchanged.
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We expect the Bank of Japan to keep monetary policy ultra-loose.
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Norwegian house prices are likely to attract some attention. We do not expect the recent trend of falling prices to come to an end.
Global macro and market themes
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Central bankers are keen to put the urge for a normalisation of policy on hold for now with the ECB delivering a dovish taper; Scandi central banks are in wait-and-see mode.
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Commodity prices are on the rise but policy makers need to see ‘effective' labour market slack erosion before moving towards an ‘exit' from unconventional policies.
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