ECB and EU politics back in the spotlight

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Market movers ahead

Focus is on the Italian referendum held on Sunday. A ‘No' seems most likely to us but we would not expect this to result in ‘Italexit' or a major sell-off in Italian government bonds.
The ECB meeting will also attract attention after end-of-easing speculation has increased. We expect a QE extension, which we believe is likely to be perceived as dovish.
In the US, we have a few important data releases, which should still suggest growth has continued above trend in Q4, still driven mainly by private consumption.
A few FOMC members are due to speak ahead of the black-out period.
In the UK, the Supreme Court hearing on the government's appeal against the High Court ruling that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50 will begin on Monday.
In Scandi markets, the main release is the Norges Bank regional network report.

Global macro and market themes

The global recovery is gathering pace and is likely to continue in 2017.
Long-term yields are set to increase further with reflation, primarily in the US.
Despite a fragile OPEC deal, oil prices are likely to rise further in 2017.
Position for a stronger USD near term but a rebound in EUR/USD later in 2017.
The stronger global economic outlook is still positive for equities.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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