Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Market movers ahead
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Focus is on the Italian referendum held on Sunday. A ‘No' seems most likely to us but we would not expect this to result in ‘Italexit' or a major sell-off in Italian government bonds.
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The ECB meeting will also attract attention after end-of-easing speculation has increased. We expect a QE extension, which we believe is likely to be perceived as dovish.
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In the US, we have a few important data releases, which should still suggest growth has continued above trend in Q4, still driven mainly by private consumption.
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A few FOMC members are due to speak ahead of the black-out period.
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In the UK, the Supreme Court hearing on the government's appeal against the High Court ruling that Parliament must vote on triggering Article 50 will begin on Monday.
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In Scandi markets, the main release is the Norges Bank regional network report.
Global macro and market themes
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The global recovery is gathering pace and is likely to continue in 2017.
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Long-term yields are set to increase further with reflation, primarily in the US.
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Despite a fragile OPEC deal, oil prices are likely to rise further in 2017.
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Position for a stronger USD near term but a rebound in EUR/USD later in 2017.
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The stronger global economic outlook is still positive for equities.
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