It is likely the first round of covered QE in 2024 focused on stabilising spreads in 5Y segment (and amounts in 2025 too small).

With stable 5Y spreads, the Riksbank QE is likely to focus on other segments ahead. Outstanding amounts suggest that shorter segments 2022-23 are likely to be bought in the next rounds of QE.

As an alternative, we find the same arguments holding for Kommuninvest bonds where the bulk of volume is in 2022/23.

Riksbank holdings in SGB1054 and SGB1057 are above 60% and unlikely to increase, in our view.

Recommendation: buy SWH192 (Mar-23) vs SGB1054 (Jun-22) & SGB1057 (Nov-23) @66.75bp (P/L: 56bp/73bp)

Download The Full Fixed Income Strategy

This publication has been prepared by Danske Bank for information purposes only. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff, may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned herein. Danske Bank's research analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their research sector.
This publication is not intended for private customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske Bank A/S is regulated by the FSA for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK and is a member of the London Stock Exchange.
Copyright () Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.

Analysis feed

FXStreet Trading Signals now available!

Access to real-time signals, community and guidance now!


Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD extends slump after NFP shows massive job loss

EUR/USD is trading below 1.08, down on the day. The Non-Farm Payrolls report has shown a loss of 701,000 jobs, worse than expected. The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside with 52.5 points. 

EUR/USD News

GBP/USD drops below 1.23 amid sour mood, after UK data

GBP/USD has dropped below 1.23 as the market mood sours. Final UK Services PMI dropped to 34.5 points, worse than expected.  

GBP/USD News

NFP Quick Analysis: 701K jobs lost only be tip of the iceberg, why King Dollar is ready for coronation

The US lost 701,000 jobs in March, the worst in 11 years. The Non-Farm Payrolls figures are lagging the fast-moving events. Wage growth is also skewed and should be ignored. The safe-haven dollar has room to rise. 

Read more

WTI trades in three-week’s highs near $26.50 a barrel

WTI is jumping from multi-year lows following the US President Trump’s tweet of yesterday (Thursday) suggesting a Saudi-Russian deal was on the pipeline.

Oil News

Gold remains confined in a range, moves little post-NFP

Gold extended its sideways consolidative price action around the $1615 region and had a rather muted reaction to the US monthly employment details

Gold News

Forex Majors

Cryptocurrencies

Signatures