Sweden: Business cycle weaker as trade tensions continue

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

Market movers ahead

We look for US Q1 GDP to be around 2.0% q/q annualised.
Euro Flash PMI and German ifo business confidence for April will indicate whether the euro area cycle is weakening further. We expect another decline.
The ECB meeting on Thursday should be relatively uneventful.
Trade war tensions will continue to be in focus. We are still waiting for Donald Trump's announcement of details on another USD100bn worth of Chinese imports subject to tariffs.
In the Scandi area, focus turns to the Riksbank meeting on Thursday and Norwegian unemployment.

Global macro and market themes

We look for the global business cycle to head lower.
We have changed our ECB call and now look for the first hike in Q4 19 but believe it will be 20bp instead of 10bp.
Risk sentiment up and yields higher on hawkish Fed and higher commodity prices.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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