Gold moved visibly higher during the first session of the year and this time mining stocks accompanied it. In fact, it seems that they are back on the track after a short pause. What’s the likely reason behind this year’s rally and what does it imply going forward?
Let’s jump right into the mining stock charts (chart courtesy of http://stockcharts.com).
Gold stocks indeed broke above the rising support lines, but since that was only one close above them, the breakout is unconfirmed. There are several reasons to think that it will not be confirmed without even considering the apex-based reversal or gold’s cyclical turning point.
The two things that we would like to discuss with regard to the above chart are: the 200-day moving average, and the RSI above the 70 level.
The former was broken rather insignificantly and this doesn’t invalidate the bearish analogy to the previous similar patterns. For instance, in February, the day when the HUI Index closed above the 200-day MA was the day of the final top. In fact, higher HUI values have never been seen since that time. The June rally also ended above the MA, but the follow-up action was very bearish.
As far as the second factor is concerned, there was only one case in the previous months, when the RSI indicator moved as high as it did yesterday - in early September. Mining stocks started an almost 50-index point-decline shortly thereafter.
Moreover, the moments when the RSI moved only to 70 level, without breaking above it, were almost always times when it was a good idea to be short the precious metals market. July 2016, February 2017, and the August-September 2017 top were all confirmed by the RSI at or above the 70 level. Naturally, the implications are bearish.
Plus, while the rising support line was broken (again, the breakout was not confirmed), the declining, even more long-term line, held. So, did we really saw a major breakout yesterday that changed the outlook? Not necessarily.
The key reason why we shouldn’t trust yesterday’s move is not visible on the above charts.
Plus, while the rising support line was broken (again, the breakout was not confirmed), the declining, even more long-term line, held. So, did we really saw a major breakout yesterday that changed the outlook? Not necessarily.
The key reason why we shouldn’t trust yesterday’s move is not visible on the above charts.
The above chart showing the golds stock ratio to the general stock market shows that there was no major breakout yesterday. Why? Because by looking at the ratio, we’re looking at the chart that “takes out” the factors that impact the entire stock market in the same way. In math, when we do the same multiplication for the numerator and the denominator of a faction, we are left with the same fraction. So, since there was no major move in the ratio, it seems that the same thing caused the rally in both markets and thus, what we saw yesterday was not a sign of strength in the precious metals sector.
Summing up, even though it seems that this year’s daily rally was a big deal, it most likely isn’t. There is a good explanation for mining stocks upswing in the form of the tax-optimizing technique. In other words, miners didn’t really show strength this week and the outlook for gold price in January didn’t really improve.
All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' employees and associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
EUR/USD stays below 1.0800 after upbeat US data
EUR/USD stays under bearish pressure and trades slightly below 1.0800 in the American session on Thursday. The data from the US showed that the real GDP growth for the fourth quarter got revised higher to 3.4% from 3.2%, supporting the USD and weighing on the pair.
GBP/USD stays in daily range above 1.2600
GBP/USD fluctuates in a narrow channel above 1.2600 on Thursday. The better-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims data from the US and the upward revision to the Q4 GDP growth helps the USD stay resilient against its rivals and limits the pair's upside.
Gold clings to strong daily gains above $2,200
Gold retreats from daily highs but holds comfortably above $2,200 in the American session on Friday. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield stays above 4.2% after upbeat US data and makes it difficult for XAU/USD to preserve its bullish momentum.
XRP price falls to $0.60 support as Ripple ruling doesn’t help Coinbase lawsuit against SEC
XRP programmatic sales ruling by Judge Torres was completely rejected by another US Court that ruled in favor of the SEC in a lawsuit against Coinbase.
Portfolio rebalancing and reflation trades emerge into Q2
Yesterday’s price action pointed at a possible end-of-quarter portfolio rebalancing as the session saw the laggards of the quarter like Apple and Tesla gain, and the stars like Microsoft and Nvidia retreat.