Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card and MobilePay data, for the last two weeks show spending is up by 5.1% compared to normal. The two week average is taken in order to account for differences in timing of paydays and holidays. Overall spending looks strong, and strengthen further, when taking the payday in the week before into account. This leaves little doubt that this reopening is outperforming the reopening from last spring.
Restaurant spending continues to hold up well, considering the restrictions that are still in place. For the first two weeks of the reopening spending in classic restaurants is 12.5% below normal, and we see no signs of a drop-off in spending compared to the first week of the reopening. The same goes for bars, where spending remains stable around 35% below normal levels.
On 6 May we also got a reopening of cinemas, in-door fitness centres and concert halls. For the period Thursday to Sunday last week spending in cinemas as well as in concert venues and theatres was down 40 % compared to normal. Though far below normal levels, it is a clear and speedy improvement.
Overall retail spending continues to perform well, and for the past two weeks total retailing has been up by 17% compared to 2019, indicating that the relative improvement in spending on services rather than goods is not leading to a decline in goods spending overall.
There is still a lot of money in household accounts, and there is a clear eagerness to spend it, as the reopening expands.
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