Slight Firming in Inflation Ahead of FOMC Meeting

U.S. Review

Slight Firming in Inflation Ahead of FOMC Meeting

• After three months of lower-than-expected inflation readings, the CPI came in higher than expectations. Despite inflation’s relatively tepid trend, FOMC members have continued to signal that they are set to announce the start of balance sheet normalization at next week’s meeting.
• Hurricane damage is beginning to show up in the monthly data. August retail sales contracted from the previous month, with notable weakness in auto sales.
• Industrial production surprised to the downside with manufacturing production contracting 0.3 percent in August.

Global Review

Chinese Economy Cools at Summer’s End

• Economic data out of China disappointed across the board this week. Retail sales and industrial production growth both came in below consensus.
• In the United Kingdom, the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee voted 7-2 in favor of keeping its policy rate and balance sheet unchanged. The pound and U.K. government bond yields jumped on hawkish language.
• The Brazilian economy continued its long climb back from a severe recession. The economic activity index for July topped expectations, rising 0.4 percent over the month in addition to a small upward revision to the previous month.

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