Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD could retest recent lows at $61

Valeria Bednarik FXStreet

XAG/USD Current price: $75.61

Financial markets turned risk-averse amid decreased hopes for a US-Iran deal.
Israel reported that Iran’s top negotiator resigned from the negotiating team.
XAG/USD gains downward traction, faces critical support at $74.61.

Silver came under selling pressure in the second half of Thursday, as risk aversion fueled US Dollar (USD) demand. Financial markets have struggled for direction since the week started, in the hope that the United States (US) and Iran would find common ground to reach a deal that would end the Middle East war.

Enthusiasm, however, faded as days went by, as representatives from both sides missed the date in Islamabad on Wednesday. US President Donald Trump announced the US would maintain the ceasefire, although Tehran won’t. Both countries continue to block the Strait of Hormuz, with skirmishes taking place in the area.

The sentiment finally took a turn for the worse on Thursday, on news coming from Israel indicating that Iran's Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, erasing any chance of a deal in the foreseeable future. The headline still needs confirmation, but its impact through financial boards is clear.

Whether the situation will escalate remains to be seen. What’s certain is that Crude Oil prices jumped with the headlines, reflecting the market’s idea of no deal at sight and more pain ahead.

XAG/USD short-term technical outlook

The case for additional XAG/USD is firmer after the pair retreated from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the daily slump measured between $96.62 and $61.01 at $83.02. Even further, the pair is currently pressuring the 38.2% retracement at $74.61, and a clear break below the level should open the door for a continued slide toward the base of the range at $61.

In the four-hour chart, XAG/USD trades with a bearish tone as price holds below the 20-, 100-, and 200-period Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), which all act as layered resistance and reinforce a bearish near-term bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator turned lower around 37 but lacks directional strength, still skewing the risk to the downside. At the same time, the Momentum indicator holds directionless below its midline, suggesting that sellers retain control, though conditions are not yet oversold enough to suggest imminent exhaustion.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

(This story was corrected on April 24 at 00:30 GMT in fifth paragraph to say XAG/USD instead of XAU/USD.)

Author

Valeria Bednarik

FXStreet

Valeria Bednarik was born and lives in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Her passion for math and numbers pushed her into studying economics in her younger years.

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