|

Sector Showcase: Biotech stocks are the "transformer" Michael Bay should be watching

The latest movie in Michael Bay's Transformers series came out this week, and based on the early reviews, it's just as bad as all the others (sorry fans, but it's been a decade since one of the movies impressed more than a third of a reviewers according to Rotten Tomatoes). Instead of wasting a couple hours your time on that particular mix of biological beings and technology, you should spend a couple minutes catching up another, more exciting development in the biotechnology sphere, namely this week's big breakout in Biotech stocks.

The world's largest biotech fund, the iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB), has had a quiet couple of months. For the last four months, the fund has been consolidating in a tight range between about 285.00 and 303.00. That changed abruptly this week, with prices surging out of that range to hit a high above 320.00.

As the chart above shows, IBB has already hit its "measured move" objective of the range breakout; in other words, after being contained to an 18-point range for four months, IBB has surged over 18 points after breaking out already this week! Given the rapid thrust higher, there's definitely a change that we could see a profit-taking dip in the coming week, especially with the Fourth of July holiday looming the following week. That said, if we take a step back, there's reason for optimism in IBB from a longer-term perspective.

As the weekly chart above shows, IBB also broke out of a longer-term ascending triangle pattern this week. The "measured move" objective of that setup actually suggests that IBB could revisit 2015's lofty highs closer to 400(!) in the coming months. Of course, no pattern is infallible, and there will inevitably be setbacks along the way, even if IBB eventually rises to that aggressive target.

Fundamentally speaking, many biotech stocks have continued to increase their earnings and bolster their pipelines over the last couple of years, while stock prices have held relatively steady or even pulled back. After a year and a half of relatively "quiet" price action, this week's price action may mark a major turning point for the planet's largest biotech ETF.

Getting a bit more granular, IBB's largest holdings include Celgene (CELG), Biogen (BIIB), Amgen (AMGN), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Gilead Sciences (GILD), all of which are trading higher by at least 5% so far this week; indeed, REGN has rallied by a staggering 11.5% in the four full trading days since Monday's open!

While we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback in these names over the next week, the big breakout in IBB bodes well for their longer-term outlook. We're currently viewing short-term dips as buying opportunities as long as IBB holds above 305.00.

While many are wasting their time and money watching a movie about transforming cars, our readers should be sure to note the more interesting "transformation" taking place in biotech stocks!

Author

Matt Weller, CFA, CMT

Matt Weller, CFA, CMT

Faraday Research

Matthew is a former Senior Market Analyst at Forex.com whose research is regularly quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Reuters. Based in the US, Matthew provides live trading recommendations during US market hours, c

More from Matt Weller, CFA, CMT
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD holds losses near 1.1850 as US, China holidays keep trade muted

EUR/USD opens the week on a softer note, trading near 1.1860 during the Asian session on Monday. Activity is likely to remain muted, with United States markets closed for the Presidents’ Day holiday, while Mainland China is also shut for the week-long Lunar New Year break.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s  irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold holds above $5,000 as bears seem hesitant amid Fed rate cut bets

Gold edges lower at the start of a new week, though it defends the $5,000 psychological mark through the Asian session. The underlying bullish sentiment is seen acting as a headwind for the bullion. However, bets for more rate cuts by the Fed, bolstered by Friday's softer US CPI, keep the US Dollar bulls on the defensive and continue to support the non-yielding yellow metal as the focus now shifts to FOMC Minutes on Wednesday.

Week ahead: Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

The US jobs report for January, which was delayed slightly, didn’t do the dovish Fed bets any favours, as expectations of a soft print did not materialize, confounding the raft of weak job indicators seen in the prior week.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.