|

Sector Showcase: Biotech stocks are the "transformer" Michael Bay should be watching

The latest movie in Michael Bay's Transformers series came out this week, and based on the early reviews, it's just as bad as all the others (sorry fans, but it's been a decade since one of the movies impressed more than a third of a reviewers according to Rotten Tomatoes). Instead of wasting a couple hours your time on that particular mix of biological beings and technology, you should spend a couple minutes catching up another, more exciting development in the biotechnology sphere, namely this week's big breakout in Biotech stocks.

The world's largest biotech fund, the iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF (IBB), has had a quiet couple of months. For the last four months, the fund has been consolidating in a tight range between about 285.00 and 303.00. That changed abruptly this week, with prices surging out of that range to hit a high above 320.00.

As the chart above shows, IBB has already hit its "measured move" objective of the range breakout; in other words, after being contained to an 18-point range for four months, IBB has surged over 18 points after breaking out already this week! Given the rapid thrust higher, there's definitely a change that we could see a profit-taking dip in the coming week, especially with the Fourth of July holiday looming the following week. That said, if we take a step back, there's reason for optimism in IBB from a longer-term perspective.

As the weekly chart above shows, IBB also broke out of a longer-term ascending triangle pattern this week. The "measured move" objective of that setup actually suggests that IBB could revisit 2015's lofty highs closer to 400(!) in the coming months. Of course, no pattern is infallible, and there will inevitably be setbacks along the way, even if IBB eventually rises to that aggressive target.

Fundamentally speaking, many biotech stocks have continued to increase their earnings and bolster their pipelines over the last couple of years, while stock prices have held relatively steady or even pulled back. After a year and a half of relatively "quiet" price action, this week's price action may mark a major turning point for the planet's largest biotech ETF.

Getting a bit more granular, IBB's largest holdings include Celgene (CELG), Biogen (BIIB), Amgen (AMGN), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), and Gilead Sciences (GILD), all of which are trading higher by at least 5% so far this week; indeed, REGN has rallied by a staggering 11.5% in the four full trading days since Monday's open!

While we wouldn't be surprised to see a pullback in these names over the next week, the big breakout in IBB bodes well for their longer-term outlook. We're currently viewing short-term dips as buying opportunities as long as IBB holds above 305.00.

While many are wasting their time and money watching a movie about transforming cars, our readers should be sure to note the more interesting "transformation" taking place in biotech stocks!

Author

Matt Weller, CFA, CMT

Matt Weller, CFA, CMT

Faraday Research

Matthew is a former Senior Market Analyst at Forex.com whose research is regularly quoted in The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg and Reuters. Based in the US, Matthew provides live trading recommendations during US market hours, c

More from Matt Weller, CFA, CMT
Share:

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD treads water above 1.1850 amid thin trading

EUR/USD stays defensive but holds 1.1850 amid quiet markets in the European hours on Monday.  The US Dollar is struggling for direction due to thin liquidity conditions as US markets are closed in observance of Presidents' Day. 

GBP/USD flat lines as traders await key UK and US macro data

GBP/USD kicks off a new week on a subdued note and oscillates in a narrow range near 1.365 in Monday's European trading. The mixed fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for aggressive traders as the market focus now shifts to this week's important releases from the UK and the US.

Gold slides below $5,000 amid USD uptick and positive risk tone; downside seems limited

Gold attracts fresh sellers at the start of a new week and reverses a part of Friday's strong move up of over $150 from sub-$4,900 levels. The commodity slides back below the $5,000 psychological mark during the Asian session, though the downside potential seems limited amid a combination of supporting factors.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate within key ranges as selling pressure eases

Bitcoin and Ethereum prices have been trading sideways within key ranges following the massive correction. Meanwhile, XRP recovers slightly, breaking above the key resistance zone. The top three cryptocurrencies hint at a potential short-term recovery, with momentum indicators showing fading bearish signs.

Global inflation watch: Signs of cooling services inflation

Realized inflation landed close to expectations in January, as negative base effects weighed on the annual rates. Remaining sticky inflation is largely explained by services, while tariff-driven goods inflation remains limited even in the US.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.