Riksbank Minutes – March 2026

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

The board is ready to act swiftly if the Middle East conflict warrants a change due to the risk of prolonged inflationary pressures.

Main message of most members is the importance to maintain credibility for the Riksbank. The outcome space is large but several highlights the risk that firms will be quicker to react given the previous experience in 2022 and 2023.

Göran Hjelm, who participated for the first time in the decision making, seemingly leaned towards a more muted reaction of the Riksbank in a scenario of rising inflationary pressures and can be interpreted as being the most dovish member at this point in time.

Seim and Thedéen are most hawkish, while Jansson and Bunge are somewhat in-between.

Our view: We see high readiness to act already in the upcoming May meeting if the conflict is ongoing and continuing to impact a wide range of intermediate goods. ECB (meeting the week before the Riksbank) and the SEK will matter.

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Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

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