Danske Research Team
Danske Bank A/S
Danish card data suggests that spending was down 2.5% for the week ending on November 27 compared to the same week last year. With prices likely increasing further in November, we are still looking at a very significant decline in real spending. Note the differences in the timing of Black Friday between this year and 2019, which explains the strength in the numbers in the graphs compared to pre-Covid levels.
Black Friday and the accompanying Black Week showed signs of weakness, with many categories performing below 2021 levels in nominal terms. Total retail spending was down 4.7% nominally compared to Black Week last year.
The weakness in Black Friday sales was largely driven by lower spending in homerelated goods, with Danes spending 17.1% less in electronic stores, 15.6% less in furniture stores, and 10.4% less in home-improvement stores.
Sales of clothing and footwear held up significantly better, with clothing spending largely on par with last year’s sales and spending in shoe stores up by 7.9%.
Overall, retail spending was down slightly more online compared to Black Week last year, than spending in physical stores. This is of cause largely due to the pandemic being largely absent.
On a more positive note, service spending picked up last week, with spending in restaurants 4.2% higher than the same week last year and spending in theatres and concert halls up 23.6% and tourist attractions up 16.1%. Society is far more open for this holiday season, allowing for higher socially related spending.
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