Resurgence in COVID starting to take a toll on jobs market

Wells Fargo Research Team Wells Fargo

After declining for four straight weeks, initial jobless claims for regular benefits rose to 742K last week. Claims are likely to stay elevated amid the latest wave of COVID, with the ranks of the long-term unemployed rising.

A New Wave of Jobless Claims?

The latest wave of COVID and renewed efforts to combat its spread is weighing on the labor market's recovery. Initial jobless claims rose by 31K the week ending Nov. 14, with 742K filings.

Claims under the PUA program, which offers benefits to gig workers and the self-employed, among others, also rose last week (+24K to 320K).

The last week of October, 20.3M workers collected benefits.

Long-term Unemployment Rising

Continuing claims for regular benefits fell by 429K the week of Nov. 7. But the number of workers on extended benefit programs rose through Oct. 31 (most recent week available), reflecting a growing number of long-term unemployed.

With more localized restrictions and signs of households hunkering down the past couple of weeks, we expect initial filings and continuing claims recipients to stay elevated.

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Wells Fargo Research Team

Wells Fargo

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