RBA minutes in Focus; Can the AUD extend beyond 0.72

AUD - Australian Dollar

The Australian dollar offered little through trade on Monday having failed to extend beyond resistance at 0.7190/0.72 in the run up to last weeks close. The AUD bounced between 0.7165 and 0.7179, tracking sideways in the absence of headline data events.

Our focus today shifts to the RBA minutes due this afternoon. While rates were left unchanged at 1.5% at the last meeting on April 2, the board did issue a change to the Rate Statement policy, a change that opens the door to a possible rate cut in the months ahead. Markets will be keenly attuned to the minutes of the meeting in a bid of gleaning a deeper insight into current RBA thought processes. A dovish undertone could force a correction back below 0.7150 and undo recent attempts to break back above 0.72.

Key Movers

Broader currency markets offered little to excite investors through trade on Monday with moves across G10 currency relatively modest. Sterling bounced between 1.3050 and 1.3110 as investors sit back and await more definitive Brexit guidance, while the Euro held onto Friday’s uptick holding on above 1.13 through much of the day. The Canadian dollar stood out as the days worst performer after the Bank of Canada published survey results that showed business confidence had touched a four-year low, intimating strength across the labour market may begin to wane.

Our attentions now turn to a series of key macroeconomic data events leading into the Easter break with UK GBP headlining tomorrow’s dockets, while European Manufacturing and Services PMI and US Retail Sales data dominate Thursdays calendar.

Expected Ranges

AUD/USD: 0.7050 - 0.7230 ▲

AUD/EUR: 0.6250 - 0.6380 ▲

GBP/AUD: 1.7950 - 1.8450 ▼

AUD/NZD: 1.0520 - 1.0680 ▲

AUD/CAD: 0.9480 - 0.9680 ▲