The next 48 hours could well be the most tumultuous in PM May’s tenure - which is saying something when you consider how rocky the road has been since she moved into number 10. The PM has been speaking in Stoke-on-Trent in a last ditch attempt to avert what is widely expected to be a crushing defeat in tomorrow evening’s key meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. As you’d expect the PM has been upbeat in her address, stating that she has secured valuable assurances from the EU on her Brexit deal and that there are lawmakers who will support the deal after previous doubts.
The pound has moved up to its highest level in 7 weeks against the US dollar as the PM speaks, and is now not far from the $1.29 handle. However, the markets remain highly skeptical as to whether May can get the required support in the Commons tomorrow evening and a heavy defeat would likely see her deal dead in the water. Recent developments have seen the consensus make a marked shift away from the probability of a no-deal but there remains a nagging doubt that this is being dismissed out of hand all too readily. If traders start to fear that it could realistically happen once more then the pound is vulnerable to a swift swoon lower.
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