Since the U.S. Presidential election, we’ve witnessed a significant rally in US equity markets, and USD appreciation against other major currencies. Analyzing data points prior to the US election results, beginning on Monday, Nov 4th, into early US morning on Wednesday, Nov 6th (when the Trump victory was confirmed), and ending the following week on Tuesday, Nov 12th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) was up 6.74%. During that one-week period, the DJIA low was on Nov 4th, of 41,678, followed by high on Nov 11th of 44,486. During that same timeframe, EURUSD reached a high of 1.0937 on Nov. 5th and a low on Nov 12th of 1.0595. EUR depreciated, against USD 3.66%. Additionally, USDJPY reached a low of on Nov 5th of 151.30 and a high on Nov 12th of 154.92, representing a 2.4% USD appreciation against JPY.
Additionally, two major central banks continued their rate reduction monetary policies, as inflation continued its downward trend. Last Thursday, Nov. 7th, both the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BOE) announced .25% interest rate cuts. The Fed’s decision brought the benchmark federal funds rate down to a range of 4.5% - 4.75%. The BOE reduced its key interest rate to 4.75% from 5%.
We’ve also witnessed longer dated US bond yields on the rise. The increase has pushed borrowing costs on 30-Year fixed mortgages higher, over the past couple months to 6.80%, as 10-year US Treasury Bonds are used as the benchmark for mortgages.
Prior to the election results, there was a growing opinion that a series of smaller rate cuts (.25% each) through 2025, would result in a federal funds rate of approximately 3.5%, by end of 2025.
The attached graphs illustrate USD appreciation against other G-4 currencies (EUR- Euro, GBP – British Pound and JPY- Japanese Yen). The data is compiled from TradtionData’s end of day New York, FX spot-mid prices. You can see USD appreciation from the Nov 1st – Nov 12th, as well as USD spike on Nov 6th; the day after the election. GBP edged higher on Nov 7th after the rate cut announcement, pointing to a continued downward trend in inflation.
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