Political turmoil, Bitcoin and the Dollar

Frank Walbaum

Important news for the day

Thu, 04th, 14:30 CET US Unemployment claims.

French politics

In France, much like South Korea, political turmoil continues as widespread protests and strikes persist over contentious government reforms. Public dissatisfaction with leadership decisions has fueled tensions, adding pressure to the administration amidst growing social unrest. The situation has been exacerbated by a lack of dialogue between the government and opposition groups, leading to a political deadlock. This ongoing unrest risks slowing economic recovery and undermining public trust in the nation's leadership.

Market talk

Risky assets remain in favour as general market momentum stays positive. The EUR and the GBP keep pushing to higher levels, whereas the AUD seemingly remains capped. Recent disappointing data might pave the way, here. Bitcoin had finally pushed beyond the USD 100k level with positive sentiment still in place. After such strong gains the odds of a bigger correction might be in play, soon. Similarly, XRP keeps pushing higher and might also offer some extended potential for a bigger correction.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD mixed, cryptos positive, oil weaker, Silver positive, Gold sideways, JPY sideways.

Author

Frank Walbaum

AUD/USD stays weak above 0.6900 after China’s trade data

AUD/USD struggles to capitalize on the previous day’s recovery and stays defensive on the 0.6900 level following the narrowing of trade surplus in China. Increased December Fed rate hike bets allows the US Dollar to pause its decline and weigh on the pair. US CPI data is next of note for the major.

USD/JPY retakes 158.00 on weak Japanese data; focus shifts to US CPI

USD/JPY attracts some dip-buyers and retakes 158.00 in the Asian session on Tuesday as a fall in Japan’s Household Spending offsets hawkish BoJ Summary of Opinions, undermining the Japanese Yen. Moreover, Fed hike bets support the safe-haven US Dollar and the currency pair. The market focus now shifts to the release of the crucial US CPI report.

Gold retreats from three-week top; $4,150 resistance holds ahead of US CPI

Gold drifts lower during Tuesday’s Asian session, reversing part of the previous day’s strong gains to a near three-week high, around the $4,150 hurdle, as mixed signals about US-Iran peace talks support the safe-haven US Dollar. Traders now look to the crucial US CPI report for more cues about the Fed’s policy path, which would drive the buck and influence the non-yielding bullion.

NYSE taps Avalanche for clearing and settlement of tokenized securities

Avalanche defied the crypto market drawdown on Monday, up 4% after announcing it will provide the core ledger technology for clearing in the New York Stock Exchange's upcoming tokenized securities trading platform.

This weeks’ two big inflation reports will offer perspective

Payrolls on Friday surprised with a big gain, 165,000 new jobs rather than the 65,000 forecast. Also the unemployment rate fell from 4.2% to 4.1% although average hourly earnings are up only 0.4% ($32.75). This weeks’ two big inflation reports will offer perspective. Tomorrow it’s CPI and on Friday, which is a Friday the 13th, it’s PPI.

Gold reclaimed $4,100. Tuesday’s CPI test decides if it holds

Gold (XAU/USD) starts the week on a positive note, reclaiming the $4,100 psychological level as the US Dollar (USD) retreats from its recent highs. The precious metal recovers from Friday's losses, although investors remain cautious ahead of Tuesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could determine the next direction for Bullion.