Political turmoil, Bitcoin and the Dollar

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

Important news for the day

Thu, 04th, 14:30 CET US Unemployment claims.

French politics

In France, much like South Korea, political turmoil continues as widespread protests and strikes persist over contentious government reforms. Public dissatisfaction with leadership decisions has fueled tensions, adding pressure to the administration amidst growing social unrest. The situation has been exacerbated by a lack of dialogue between the government and opposition groups, leading to a political deadlock. This ongoing unrest risks slowing economic recovery and undermining public trust in the nation's leadership.

Market talk

Risky assets remain in favour as general market momentum stays positive. The EUR and the GBP keep pushing to higher levels, whereas the AUD seemingly remains capped. Recent disappointing data might pave the way, here. Bitcoin had finally pushed beyond the USD 100k level with positive sentiment still in place. After such strong gains the odds of a bigger correction might be in play, soon. Similarly, XRP keeps pushing higher and might also offer some extended potential for a bigger correction.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD mixed, cryptos positive, oil weaker, Silver positive, Gold sideways, JPY sideways.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

GBP/USD holds recovery gains near 1.3400 despite soft UK CPI data

GBP/USD clings to recovery gains near 1.3400 in European trading on Wednesday. The UK annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation cooled to 2.6% in June against the market forecast of 2.7%, failing to deter the British Pound's rebound from weekly troughs. However, the pair's further upside could be limited by ongoing Mideast tensions and sustained US Dollar demand as a haven.

EUR/USD gains ground above 1.1400 on hawkish ECB tone

The EUR/USD pair holds positive ground near 1.1410 during the early European trading hours, bolstered by a hawkish tone from the European Central Bank. However, the potential upside for the major pair might be limited amid escalating military tensions and recent retaliatory airstrikes between the US and Iran.

Gold: Strong recovery might face roadblock as oil price extends gains

Gold price extends its winning streak for the third trading day on Wednesday, trading 1.5% higher to near $4,140 during the Asian session. The precious metal recovered strongly in the past few trading days from its three-week low of $3,959.80 as traders scaled back Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike expectations for the monetary policy meeting next week.

Bitcoin holds firm as ONDO and GRAM lead rally

The broader cryptocurrency market is witnessing an easing of bearish momentum, with Bitcoin holding above $66,000 on Wednesday. Altcoins including Ondo and Gram, formerly known as Toncoin, are leading gains over the last 24 hours, driven by new features. Bitcoin holds above $66,000 on Wednesday, following a 2% surge the previous day.

Hyperliquid hits a make-or-break zone amid easing demand

Hyperliquid (HYPE) hovers around $60 capped below its 50-day Exponential Moving Average at $62.70. The everything exchange token is losing its retail demand as funding rates fluctuate near zero amid elevated long liquidations.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.