Political turmoil, Bitcoin and the Dollar

Frank Walbaum FX Strategies.Asia

Important news for the day

Thu, 04th, 14:30 CET US Unemployment claims.

French politics

In France, much like South Korea, political turmoil continues as widespread protests and strikes persist over contentious government reforms. Public dissatisfaction with leadership decisions has fueled tensions, adding pressure to the administration amidst growing social unrest. The situation has been exacerbated by a lack of dialogue between the government and opposition groups, leading to a political deadlock. This ongoing unrest risks slowing economic recovery and undermining public trust in the nation's leadership.

Market talk

Risky assets remain in favour as general market momentum stays positive. The EUR and the GBP keep pushing to higher levels, whereas the AUD seemingly remains capped. Recent disappointing data might pave the way, here. Bitcoin had finally pushed beyond the USD 100k level with positive sentiment still in place. After such strong gains the odds of a bigger correction might be in play, soon. Similarly, XRP keeps pushing higher and might also offer some extended potential for a bigger correction.

Tendencies in the markets

Equities positive, USD mixed, cryptos positive, oil weaker, Silver positive, Gold sideways, JPY sideways.

Author

Frank Walbaum

FX Strategies.Asia

Frank has been working in the TV business for several years. Acquiring his skills in Germany’s biggest broadcasting station, he then chose to work and live in Asia, which was in 2007.

EUR/USD flat lines below 1.1900; divergent Fed-ECB expectations offer support

The EUR/USD pair struggles to capitalize on the overnight bounce from the 1.1835-1.1830 region and oscillates in a narrow band during the Asian session on Thursday. Spot prices currently trade around the 1.1875 area, remaining nearly unchanged for the day and staying within striking distance of an over one-week high, reached on Tuesday, amid mixed cues.

GBP/USD slips heading into the Thursday trading window

The Pound Sterling pulled back from four-year highs on Wednesday, weighed down by a combination of Bank of England dovishness and UK political uncertainty, even as the US Dollar weakened on soft labor market revisions.

Gold posts modest gains above $5,050 as US-Iran tensions persist despite strong labor data

Gold price trades in positive territory near $5,060 during the early Asian session on Thursday. The precious metal edges higher despite stronger-than-expected US employment data. The release of the US Consumer Price Index inflation report will take center stage later on Friday.

Bitcoin holds steady despite strong US labour market

Bitcoin briefly bounced from $66,000 to above $68,000 but slightly reversed those gains following Wednesday's US January jobs report. The top crypto is hovering around $67,000, down 2% over the past 24 hours as of writing on Wednesday.

The market trades the path not the past

The payroll number did not just beat. It reset the tone. 130,000 vs. 65,000 expected, with a 35,000 whisper. 79 of 80 economists leaning the wrong way. Unemployment and underemployment are edging lower. For all the statistical fog around birth-death adjustments and seasonal quirks, the core message was unmistakable. The labour market is not cracking.

XRP sell-off deepens amid weak retail interest, risk-off sentiment

Ripple (XRP) is edging lower around $1.36 at the time of writing on Wednesday, weighed down by low retail interest and macroeconomic uncertainty, which is accelerating risk-off sentiment.