A Brexit deal is back in play following a between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar .

The British Pound jumped the most in 11 months on the news Varadkar Says Brexit Deal is Possible.

Open Minds

No sign as yet what the ERG/Tory Brexit die-hards, might make of a Johnson-reached deal with concessions over NI customs arrangements. One such Tory MP tells me they are "keeping an open mind" until more details emerge.

Peter Walker @peterwalker99

The British Pound jumped the most in 11 months on the news Varadkar Says Brexit Deal is Possible.

Back in Dublin, @simoncoveney says “significant Amount of work to be done” to seal Brexit deal - but can be done before end of October

Dara Doyle @DaraDoy

Having watched EU politics for years, I am not at all surprised by news Varadkar says new agreement 'possible' by end of October after talks with Johnson.

"For the first time in months, there is a more optimistic tone in tomorrow’s newspapers on the prospect of a deal being reached with the EU."

This is very typical of EU politics as I have commented many times.

Despite the hardening language of just a day ago, after a meeting between Johnson and Varadkar, a deal is suddenly back in play.

What Happened?

Did Johnson give in on something? Yes, he had to. Giving the DUP a veto was never going to fly.

Anything more is difficult to say.

Did Ireland give in on something. That's not certain, but it's possible, if not likely.

What If?

If Johnson does produce a deal, it may come with a do or die proviso.

If so, there will be no further extensions.

Parliament will have to accept the deal or face a No Deal result on October 31.

Perhaps there is a short extension into November or even January 31, 2020 but only to tie up loose ends.

I suspect the UK parliament would agree to the deal on those conditions. If not, No Deal on October 31.

There is a small chance that the European Parliament rejects the deal after approved by the UK. The result would be the same: No Deal.


I don't know.

What did Johnson give away? The EU?

If there is a deal, we will find out shortly.

But here we are, discussing a deal that most thought "impossible".

I never thought that, noting many last second EU deals, but it sure looked grim just a day ago.

This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.

Analysis feed

Latest Forex Analysis

Editors’ Picks

EUR/USD turns below 1.10 as market mood eases

EUR/USD has dropped below 1.10 as the market mood improves. Earlier, it hit three-week highs as the stock market crash and rush into bonds is raising the chances of the US Fed cutting rates. Further coronavirus headlines are awaited.


GBP/USD hits new 2020 low amid Brexit rhetoric, coronavirus headlines

GBP/USD has dipped below 1.2800, hitting a new 2020 low as concerns about a no-trade-deal Brexit are weighing on the pound. Modest recovery seen in USD during the American session keeps the bearish pressure intact.


XAU/USD tumbles near two-week’s lows, sub-$1600/oz

Gold has been dropping sharply this Friday while reaching the 200 SMA on the four-hour chart. XAU/USD bulls gave up as sellers took the market down sharply. The bears seem to be in charge and more down could potentially be expected. 

Gold News

WTI remains under pressure around $45.00

Nothing new around crude oil prices, with rising concerns on the Chinese COVID-19 and its potential impact on the economy and the demand for the commodity keeping traders’ sentiment well depressed.

Oil News

FXStreet launches Real-Time Trading Signals

FXStreet Signals offers access to explanatory live webinars, real-time notifications when signals are triggered and exclusive membership to the company’s Telegram group, where users get direct guidance by our analysts and get room to discuss and interact.

More info

Forex Majors