Mike “Mish” Shedlock's
Sitka Pacific Capital Management,Llc
A Brexit deal is back in play following a between Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his Irish counterpart Leo Varadkar .
The British Pound jumped the most in 11 months on the news Varadkar Says Brexit Deal is Possible.
Open Minds
No sign as yet what the ERG/Tory Brexit die-hards, might make of a Johnson-reached deal with concessions over NI customs arrangements. One such Tory MP tells me they are "keeping an open mind" until more details emerge.
Peter Walker @peterwalker99
The British Pound jumped the most in 11 months on the news Varadkar Says Brexit Deal is Possible.
Back in Dublin, @simoncoveney says “significant Amount of work to be done” to seal Brexit deal - but can be done before end of October
Dara Doyle @DaraDoy
Having watched EU politics for years, I am not at all surprised by news Varadkar says new agreement 'possible' by end of October after talks with Johnson.
"For the first time in months, there is a more optimistic tone in tomorrow’s newspapers on the prospect of a deal being reached with the EU."
This is very typical of EU politics as I have commented many times.
Despite the hardening language of just a day ago, after a meeting between Johnson and Varadkar, a deal is suddenly back in play.
What Happened?
Did Johnson give in on something? Yes, he had to. Giving the DUP a veto was never going to fly.
Anything more is difficult to say.
Did Ireland give in on something. That's not certain, but it's possible, if not likely.
What If?
If Johnson does produce a deal, it may come with a do or die proviso.
If so, there will be no further extensions.
Parliament will have to accept the deal or face a No Deal result on October 31.
Perhaps there is a short extension into November or even January 31, 2020 but only to tie up loose ends.
I suspect the UK parliament would agree to the deal on those conditions. If not, No Deal on October 31.
There is a small chance that the European Parliament rejects the deal after approved by the UK. The result would be the same: No Deal.
Odds?
I don't know.
What did Johnson give away? The EU?
If there is a deal, we will find out shortly.
But here we are, discussing a deal that most thought "impossible".
I never thought that, noting many last second EU deals, but it sure looked grim just a day ago.
This material is based upon information that Sitka Pacific Capital Management considers reliable and endeavors to keep current, Sitka Pacific Capital Management does not assure that this material is accurate, current or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD tumbles toward 0.6350 as Middle East war fears mount
AUD/USD has come under intense selling pressure and slides toward 0.6350, as risk-aversion intensifies following the news that Israel retaliated with missile strikes on a site in Iran. Fears of the Israel-Iran strife translating into a wider regional conflict are weighing on the higher-yielding Aussie Dollar.
USD/JPY breaches 154.00 as sell-off intensifies on Israel-Iran escalation
USD/JPY is trading below 154.00 after falling hard on confirmation of reports of an Israeli missile strike on Iran, implying that an open conflict is underway and could only spread into a wider Middle East war. Safe-haven Japanese Yen jumped, helped by BoJ Governor Ueda's comments.
Gold price jumps above $2,400 as MidEast escalation sparks flight to safety
Gold price has caught a fresh bid wave, jumping beyond $2,400 after Israel's retaliatory strikes on Iran sparked a global flight to safety mode and rushed flows into the ultimate safe-haven Gold. Risk assets are taking a big hit, as risk-aversion creeps into Asian trading on Friday.
WTI surges to $85.00 amid Israel-Iran tensions
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $85.00 on Friday. The black gold gains traction on the day amid the escalating tension between Israel and Iran after a US official confirmed that Israeli missiles had hit a site in Iran.
Dogwifhat price pumps 5% ahead of possible Coinbase effect
Dogwifhat price recorded an uptick on Thursday, going as far as to outperform its peers in the meme coins space. Second only to Bonk Inu, WIF token’s show of strength was not just influenced by Bitcoin price reclaiming above $63,000.