S&P 500 bulls didn‘t close conclusively while neither bonds nor the dollar pressured them much. Today, the manufacturing data confirmed my earlier point that a manufacturing recession is inevitable following yield curve inversions – so, more deterioration. It‘s though the Fed speakers that are being feared today – the dollar and yields are enjoying a reprieve even though the dollar upswing would prove temporary as I don‘t favor 75bp hike in Dec. The momentum is though with the bears today – risk-off session awaits.
Remember the one wish for yesterday? Markets didn‘t deliver any daily steepening of the yield curve, of the 10-year over 2-year – quite to the contrary.
Keep enjoying the lively Twitter feed serving you all already in, which comes on top of getting the key daily analytics right into your mailbox. Plenty gets addressed there, but the analyses (whether short or long format, depending on market action) over email are the bedrock, so make sure you‘re signed up for the free newsletter and that you have Twitter notifications turned on so as not to miss any tweets or replies intraday.
Let‘s move right into the charts.
S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook
We didn‘t keep above 3,958, and are unlikely to return there before the week is over – judging by the premarket today. Much depends upon the closing volume and candle shape, upon the degree to which tech is (or isn‘t) able to shake off the pressure today.
Credit markets
Will bonds buy into the hawkish Fed messaging, or will they shake it off by the close of tomorrow? Again, volume would offer a clue as to where this unfolding downswing stops.
Gold, Silver and Miners
We haven‘t seen an important precious metals top – the sector will recover from the risk-off whiff that would extend here too – silver at $21 is cheap, and wouldn‘t suffer the same mid-Oct setback this month, just look how well the miners progressed since.
Crude Oil
Oil stocks warrant some short-term caution, but together with crude oil, have better days ahead – returning above $90 before this month is over easily.
All essays, research and information represent analyses and opinions of Monica Kingsley that are based on available and latest data. Despite careful research and best efforts, it may prove wrong and be subject to change with or without notice. Monica Kingsley does not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. Her content serves educational purposes and should not be relied upon as advice or construed as providing recommendations of any kind. Futures, stocks and options are financial instruments not suitable for every investor. Please be advised that you invest at your own risk. Monica Kingsley is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading her writings, you agree that she will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make. Investing, trading and speculating in financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Monica Kingsley may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in her writings, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
AUD/USD remains under pressure above 0.6400
AUD/USD managed to regain some composure and rebounded markedly from Tuesday’s YTD lows in the sub-0.6400 region ahead of the release of the Australian labour market report on Thursday.
EUR/USD faces decent contention around 1.0600
The knee-jerk in the Greenback reignited some buying interest in the risk complex and pushed EUR/USD to three-day highs near 1.0680, rapidly leaving behind the recent yearly low around 1.0600.
Gold eases despite risk-off mood
Gold trades in a relatively tight range near $2,390 in the second half of the day on Wednesday. In the absence of high-tier data releases, investors keep a close eye on headlines surrounding the Iran-Israel conflict.
Ethereum trades around the $3,000 support following a surge in validator queue
Ethereum (ETH) continued a sideways movement on Wednesday as investors seemed to be waiting for an upward or downward price catalyst. Despite the price stagnancy, the ETH validator queue - possibly fueled by the DeFi restaking boom - rose sharply.
Markets stabilize after Powell rules out rate hike, but the signs don’t look good
Markets are volatile right now; however, a relative calm has descended on the market and US. US stocks are down a touch, but the Vix is lower, US Treasury yields are lower, and the dollar is mostly lower vs. its G10 FX counterparts.