|

NZD/USD aims at 0.75 for +250 pips after completing wave-4

  • NZD/USD is building a choppy, sideways price movement at the 21 ema zone. This is typical for a wave 4 correction.

  • This article reviews what to expect after a wave 4 is completed. We also analyse potential trading ideas and targets.

  • The confirmation of the uptrend continuation occurs when price action manages to break (green arrows) above the resistance trend line (orange). 

  • The main target of the wave 5 (pink) is the -27.2% Fibonacci target at 0.75.

Chart

Price Charts and Technical Analysis

The NZD/USD seems to have completed a wave 4 (pink). Here are the main factors:

  1. Price action showed a strong impulsive move up in wave 3 (pink).

  2. The correction has been choppy as expected.

  3. The 21 ema support zone is acting as support.

  4. The long-term moving averages are aligned.

  5. Price action respected the shallow 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level.

  6. Price action is trying to break above the 21 ema zone.

  7. A triangle chart pattern is visible.

The confirmation of the uptrend continuation occurs when price action manages to break (green arrows) above the resistance trend line (orange). 

The main target of the wave 5 (pink) is the -27.2% Fibonacci target at 0.75.

A bearish breakout does not mean that the uptrend is over. The 38.2% Fib and support trend line (green) are likely to create a bullish bounce (blue arrow).

On the 4 hour chart, price action seems to have completed an ABCDE (grey) triangle chart pattern within wave 4 (pink).Now price action is pushing up via a wave 1-2 (grey). 

A breakout could confirm the start of the wave 3 (grey). But it is key to see a bull flag emerge after the breakout. Strong bearish price action should not appear.

The bullish outlook remains valid as long as price action remains above the 100% Fibonacci of wave 2 (grey). A break below invalidates it (red circle).

NZDUSD

The analysis has been done with the ecs.SWAT method and ebook.

Author

Chris Svorcik

Chris Svorcik

FS method

Chris Svorcik is a trader, analyst, and educator with over 15 years of experience in financial markets, specializing in moving averages, market structure, and price patterns.

More from Chris Svorcik
Share:

Editor's Picks

AUD/USD sticks to neutral bias above 0.7100 amid cautious markets

AUD/USD holds steady above 0.7100 in the Asian session on Monday as the US Dollar stalls its modest pullback from the highest level since late July amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties. The PBOC status quo on Loan Prime Rates also weighs on the Aussie. However, bets on another RBA rate hike continue to underpin the Australian Dollar ahead of the Trump-Xi Summit.

USD/JPY eases below 157.00 amid looming intervention risks

USD/JPY is easing back below 157.00 in Asia on Monday, undermined by modest Japanese Yen strength amid looming intervention risks after Friday's BoJ rate check. A Japanese holiday also keeps traders on edge amid escalating geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine and in the Middle East. As a result, the US Dollar pauses its pullback, limiting the pair's downside.

Gold meets resistance around $4,400

Gold kicks in the new trading with on the back foot, keeping its trade near $4,350 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s correction comes on the back of the firmer US Dollar and espite declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Bitcoin hits $85,000 for the first time in eight months
Bitcoin price reclaims $85,000 on Monday, advancing last week’s 5% recovery toward an eight-month high. The recovery in King Crypto aligns with renewed institutional demand, with Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) recording $433 million in inflows on Friday.
The week ahead: Fuel prices in focus as we lead up to key eco releases

Financial markets are in a strange position as we move to the final weeks of Q3, uncertainty and volatility continue to grip markets, but the oil price is falling; and European and US stocks are poised to open higher later on Monday. Market stresses are concentrated in sovereign bonds, and European and US yields had another scare late on Friday, and moved higher.

BoJ Recap: Not as hawkish as expected

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised its short-term interest-rate target to 1.25% from 1.00% in a 7-2 vote, marking another step in the normalisation of monetary policy and widely matching what everyone has been expecting for weeks.