Nowcasts and estimates for Q4 2025: Growth is rising in the advanced economies and in China

BNP Paribas Team BNP Paribas

EcoCharts will provide quarterly an economic outlook for the Eurozone (including credit), Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan and China, as well as nowcasts for the Eurozone, France, the United States and Germany. The overall picture is positive for Q4 2025.

According to our nowcast models as of 21 January 2025, GDP growth is expected to remain strong in the Eurozone (+0.4% q/q), the United States (+1.3% q/q) and France (+0.3% q/q).
Our growth forecasts for Spain, the United Kingdom, Italy and Japan also point to an acceleration q/q: +0.7%, +0.2%, +0.2% and +0.3%, respectively. The figure published by China is in line with this trend: +1.2%.
Household confidence remains low, but households are more willing to consume.
The labour market appears more resilient.
Inflation: the time has come for moderation
Central banks are likely to adopt a wait-and-see or cautious approach in 2026: the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England are expected to cut their key rates once in Q1; the Bank of Japan would raise rates twice by 25 bp in Q2 and Q4, while China would lower them by 10 bp in Q1 and Q3.

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BNP Paribas Team

BNP Paribas

BNP Paribas Economic Research Department is a worldwide function, part of Corporate and Investment Banking, at the service of both the Bank and its customers.

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