Nothing has changed...yet

After last week's sharp moves, markets are starting the new week with a series of tests rather than clear breakouts.

The U.S. dollar remains trapped between major support and resistance zones, while precious metals are attempting to stabilize after Friday's weakness. For now, most key structures remain intact, which means confirmation remains the most important tool on the trader's desk.

U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)

From today's perspective, very little has changed since Friday.

The dollar remains trapped inside a relatively narrow range between the recently reclaimed March highs - which continue to act as support - and a major resistance zone built around the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, the upper boundary of the black rising channel, and the bearish gap from late May 2025 (100.75-100.95).

In other words, the market is still waiting for a decision.

A breakout above resistance would strengthen the bullish case and open the door to higher levels. However, a failure at resistance followed by a break below support would shift momentum back toward sellers.

Until one of those levels gives way, Friday's outlook remains fully intact:

“(…) we haven't seen a break below yesterday's breakout zone or the recently reclaimed March highs. In other words, unless we get a daily close below 100.50-100.53, today's weakness still looks more like a verification of yesterday's breakout than a full reversal.

What happens if bears manage to close the day below that area?

In that case, a retest of yesterday's bullish support gap (99.87-100.15) becomes a realistic scenario early next week.

Until then, bulls remain in control. (…)” 

Platinum (PL.F)

Let's start with Friday's quote:

“(…) as long as last Friday's bullish gap (1665-1726) remains open, buyers still have a chance to build a double-bottom structure. (…)”

From today's perspective, we see that buyers successfully defended the mentioned bullish gap, keeping the potential double-bottom scenario alive.

That sounds encouraging, however, before that structure can become actionable, bulls still have a lot of work to do.

The first obstacle remains Friday's bearish gap (1700-1707). Above it sits an even larger bearish gap (1736-1793), reinforced by the short-term declining trendline.

As long as this resistance zone remains intact, patience is probably the better strategy.

On the other hand, if buyers lose momentum and platinum closes below 1641, Friday's bearish scenario quickly becomes the path of least resistance again. As a reminder:

“(…) However, if that support fails, the probability of a move toward 1600 increases significantly. And if momentum accelerates, even the 127.2% Fibonacci extension near 1584 comes into play.(…)”

Palladium (PA.F)

Friday's break below 1270 led exactly where we expected it to.

Price tested the lower boundary of the June 12 bullish gap (1250-1285), which continues to act as the nearest and major support.

The good news for bulls?

That support held.

The bad news?

Not much else changed because palladium remains below the previously broken lower boundary of the orange consolidation. Therefore, in our opinion, as long as the price stays below 1305, another downswing toward the 1234 region cannot be ruled out.

For now, buyers need a daily close back above 1305 before the technical picture starts improving.

Copper (HG.F)

Copper delivered a very similar story.

The successful close of the bearish gap from today’s Asian open encouraged buyers and helped price recover from Friday's weakness.

That rebound pushed copper toward the lower boundary of Thursday's bearish gap (637.25-649.35), which remains the key resistance area to watch.

Is today's action constructive?

Yes.

Has it changed the bigger picture?

Not yet.

As long as Thursday's gap remains open, Friday's bearish outlook remains valid:

“(…) Can buyers still fight back?

Yes - as long as that June support gap remains open.

However, with Thursday's bearish gap still hanging above the market, another retest of today's low and potentially the next support zone around 617-619 cannot be ruled out.

Until buyers start closing gaps overhead, rallies should be treated cautiously.(…)”

Today’s takeaway

Dollar (DX.F)

•             Watch the resistance zone between 100.75-100.95

•             Break above = bullish continuation

•             Break below March-high support = bearish reversal

•             Until then -> range trading conditions remain in place
Platinum (PL.F)

•             Bulls defended the June 12 gap (1665-1726), which serves as the nearest support

•             Resistance areas to watch: 1700-1707 and 1736-1793

•             Close below 1641 reactivates Friday's bearish scenario
Palladium (PA.F)

•             Key support to watch: 1250-1285

•             First resistance to break: 1305

•             Below 1305 -> downside risk remains
Copper (HG.F)

•             Key resistance to watch: 637.25-649.35

•             Gap remains open = bears still hold the edge

•             Closing the gap would be the first meaningful bullish signal

Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its hand before committing fresh risk.