Not batting much of an eyelid

S&P 500 rejected shallow downside, and easily continued pushing higher – bonds aren‘t turning risk-off, but HYG is getting into an extended (vulnerable) position. So far, markets have largely ignored three latest data pieces in – Empire State manufacturing index plunging (both in orders ahead and shipments), positive quarterly results by WMT and HD, and sharp deterioration in actual housing starts (permits are fine, but they‘ll catch up – it‘s the action that counts, and that‘s reflected in the not too encouraging prospects of the real market market). Willingness to sell and fast, is there. Deterioration ahead - and the pace could turn quckening on any good uptick in offers to sell stocks.

S&P 500 and Nasdaq outlook

S&P 500 hasn‘t yet reached the 200-day moving average, let alone attempted to overshoot it. The prospects of successfully doing so, are slim, and the declining volume means that the sellers can move fast (should they finally decide to step in en masse).

Credit markets

HYG is hanging in there, refusing to decline at the moment, but the low volume is a watchout – for the bulls. This can all turn risk-off pretty fast, but likely won‘t today – with full force, that is...