Norges Bank to hike as EU decides on Brexit extension

Market movers ahead

  • On Thursday, we expect Norges Bank to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.00% and signal one further rate hike this year

  • We expect the EU27 to accept an extension of Brexit when they meet on Thursday- Friday.

  • The Fed is on hold while lowering the ‘dot' signal for 2019 to one hike (from two).

  • The Bank of England is in no hurry to raise rates in the current environment.

  • Preliminary Markit PMIs for euro area, Japan and the US are due out next week. In particular, we hope to see some stabilisation in the euro area PMIs soon.

  • In Sweden, Valueguard property prices are due out Monday morning.

 

Weekly wrap-up

  • A dramatic Brexit week ended as expected, as the House of Commons rejected May's deal, rejected leaving the EU without a deal but supported asking the EU27 for an extension. The decision has to be taken unanimously by the EU27 leaders

  • The US-China trade war summit between Trump and Xi Jinping has been delayed at least until April.

  • No monetary policy change from the Bank of Japan this week.

  • Euro area industrial production surprised on the upside, supporting our view that euro area activity is starting to recover some ground here in Q1 from the weak H2 18.

 

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