Giles Coghlan LLB, Lth, MA
HYCM
Sometimes, just knowing that there is no seasonal pattern ahead for a currency, a commodity, or an index can be really helpful information. In the case of the AUDNZD currency pair, we can see that over the months of September and October, there is a very neutral seasonal bias. The gains and losses around the pair are roughly evenly balanced, and the average return, although negative, is still relatively small. As a result, you can look at this currency pair and see that the absence of seasonal buyers could provide clarity if there is a clear shift in the central bank decision.
The Reserve Bank of Australia is due to meet on the 5th of September, and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is due to meet on the 4th of October. So, during this relatively neutral period for the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar seasonal pattern, there are two central bank decisions. Therefore, we can put more emphasis on the central banks' decisions without needing to worry about a strong seasonal pattern that could be also influencing the currency pair. Watch out for the 5th of September and the 4th of October for currency moves in the AUDNZD pair.
Major trade risks: The biggest risk here has to do with the path of the RBA and the RBNZ and their monetary policy decisions.
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