Morning briefing: EUR/USD approaches 1.1600 support

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The US FOMC is scheduled today wherein the central bank is widely expected to lower the rates by 25 bps. The Dollar Index looks stable above 99 for now. The targets of 98-97 are kept open for now. EURUSD & EURINR are approaching the respective supports coming at 1.16 & 104 which can be tested soon before rising back later. EURJPY need to see a sustain move above 182 to bring 184-185 into picture. USDJPY is rising within its 154-158 range. USDCNY & AUDUSD is stuck within 7.08-7.06 & 0.665-0.660 region respectively. Pound is trading near the support at 1.33. Need to see whether it holds or the fall extends further. USDINR can initially test 89.75 or 89.50 before rebounding towards 90.25-90.50 later.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher and stable inside their resistance zone. The US Fed meeting outcome tonight will be important to watch. It could decide whether the yields can break their resistance and move higher or will they fall back. A 25bps rate cut is widely expected from the Fed tonight. The economic projections and the future rate path will be much more important to look for. The German yields remain higher. The bias is positive to see more rise from here. The 10Yr GoI has risen sharply within its range. If the momentum sustains, a bullish breakout and more rise is possible going forward.

The Dow holds within the 47000-49000 range while the DAX looks bullish towards 24500. Nifty could have scope to test 25600 before climbing towards 26000 or higher again. Nikkei needs a sustained break past 51000 to target 52000, otherwise it may stay sideways between 51000-48000. Shanghai has dipped below 3900 and could head towards the lower end of the 3950-3800 range.

Crude remains soft with Brent holding within $64-62 and WTI inside $60-58. Gold is likely to stay in a steady $4200-4300 band before it tries for a rise to$4400. Silver is finally pushing through resistance with room to reach $62-63 if the rise holds. Copper has slipped more than expected and can dip toward $5.20 before stabilising. Natural Gas has broken support and may slide further toward $4.50-4.00 in the coming sessions.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD stays defensive below 1.1900 as USD recovers

EUR/USD trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day, below 1.1900 in the European session on Thursday. A modest rebound in the US Dollar is weighing on the pair, despite an upbeat market mood. Traders keep an eye on the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for further trading impetus.

GBP/USD holds above 1.3600 after UK data dump

\GBP/USD moves little while holding above 1.3600 in the European session on Thursday, following the release of the UK Q4 preliminary GDP, which showed a 0.1% growth against a 0.2% increase expected. The UK industrial sector activity deteriorated in Decembert, keeping the downward pressure intact on the Pound Sterling.

Gold sticks to modest intraday losses as reduced March Fed rate cut bets underpin USD

Gold languishes near the lower end of its daily range heading into the European session on Thursday. The precious metal, however, lacks follow-through selling amid mixed cues and currently trades above the $5,050 level, well within striking distance of a nearly two-week low touched the previous day.

Cardano eyes short-term rebound as derivatives sentiment improves

Cardano (ADA) is trading at $0.257 at the time of writing on Thursday, after slipping more than 4% so far this week. Derivatives sentiment improves as ADA’s funding rates turn positive alongside rising long bets among traders.

A tale of two labour markets: Headline strength masks underlying weakness

Undoubtedly, yesterday’s delayed US January jobs report delivered a strong headline – one that surpassed most estimates. However, optimism quickly faded amid sobering benchmark revisions.

Sonic Labs’ vertical integration fuels recovery in S token

Sonic, previously Fantom (FTM), is extending its recovery trade at $0.048 at the time of writing, after rebounding by over 12% the previous day. The recovery thesis’ strengths lie in the optimism surrounding Sonic Labs’ Wednesday announcement to shift to a vertically integrated model, aimed at boosting S token utility.