Morning briefing: The US treasury yields remain higher

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

Weaker-than-expected NFP data yesterday is the main catalyst for the market movement over yesterday and today. Dollar Index has declined as expected but can slowly rise towards 101-101.50 next week. Today the US market is closed. Euro is also likely to hold below 1.15 and decline back towards 1.1350. USDJPY had dipped due to the fall in the Dollar Index, but can slowly recover back towards 161.50-162. EURINR can trade within 108-109.50 region while EURJPY may rise towards 185/186 while above 183. USDCNY has fallen below 6.78 and if that holds, can test 6.77/76. Aussie and Pound have risen well. Sustained rise from current levels can take it towards 0.70 and 1.35 respectively. USDINR, opened below 95 yesterday but moved back to close sharply higher. We may expect some dip today towards 95-94.90 but the dip may be short lived. We suggest buy on dips on the USDINR for the near term while above 94.75.

The US Treasury Yields remain higher. We retain our view of seeing more rise from here. The US markets are closed today for the Independence Day holiday. The US unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in June from 4.3% a month ago. The German Yields have room to rise further from here. They can test their resistance and turn down again. The 10Yr GoI has come down again. The expected rise is not happening. A break below the immediate support can trigger a deep fall going forward.

Global equities are showing mixed trends. Dow and DAX have turned bullish after breaking above key resistance levels and can rise further towards 53500-54000 and 26000-26500 respectively. Nifty has also strengthened and can advance towards 24250-24600, making a deeper pullback less likely. Nikkei remains weak and is likely to trade within the broad 68000-73000 range. Shanghai is holding above key support near 4000 and could remain within the 4000-4150 range for some time.

Crude prices remain weak and can decline further towards $70 and $65 before a corrective bounce back is seen. Gold has held above the key $4000 support, keeping the bullish outlook intact for a rise towards $4200-$4250. Silver continues to recover gradually and can rise towards $65-$70 while support near $55 holds. Copper remains constructive above $5.90 and can advance towards $6.25-$6.30. Natural Gas is likely to continue trading within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

GBP/USD gathers strength above 1.3350, but stays capped below 100-day average

The GBP/USD pair trades in positive territory around 1.3360 during the early European session on Friday. The British Pound gathers strength against the US Dollar on a weaker-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report.

EUR/USD trades cautiously higher near mid-1.1400s amid mixed setup

The EUR/USD pair attracts some dip-buyers during the Asian session on Friday, stalling the previous day's modest pullback from the 1.1470-1.1475 region, or a nearly two-week high. Spot prices currently trade just below mid-1.1400s and seem poised to register gains for the first time in three weeks as receding US Federal Reserve rate hike bets keep the US Dollar depressed.

Gold advances to $4,200 neighborhood amid reduced Fed hike bets

Gold is seen building on this week's recovery move from its lowest level since November 2025 and gaining positive traction for the third straight day. The precious metal advances to the $4,200 neighborhood, or a one-and-a-half-week high, during the Asian session and remains on track to register gains for the first time in five weeks.

Bitcoin and Ethereum rebound as bulls return, XRP targets breakout

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple extend their recovery on Friday as improving risk sentiment and strengthening technical indicators support the broader cryptocurrency market. BTC reclaims the $61,300 level after rebounding from a 21-month low earlier this week, while ETH holds firm near $1,700 following a sharp two-day recovery.

Economics week ahead

Market attention turns to next week's FOMC minutes for any signs of what could shift a divided Committee from a hold toward rate hikes. The dot plot from the last meeting made clear that policymakers are split on whether rate hikes are warranted, but with forward guidance getting tamped down under Chair Warsh, the Fed's reaction function remains uncertain in terms of what exactly would build broader support for more restrictive policy.

Kevin Warsh offers no policy clues: Why markets still got their answer

Financial markets came to Sintra looking for clues about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next move. They largely left with confirmation that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh intends to make those clues much harder to find.