Morning briefing: The strength in the Dollar Index can drag the Euro lower

The Dollar index holds well above 100 and has potential rise further from here. The strength in the dollar index can drag the Euro lower. The USDJPY has come off from its high. It had surged on Friday after the 25-bps rate hike from the BoJ. While it sustains above the immediate support, the USDJPY can rise back and go further higher. EURJPY can also go higher if it manages to breach the immediate resistance. Aussie looks bullish and can rise more. Pound on the other had looks weak and can fall. The USDINR has room to rise more. This rise can happen either from here itself or after a short-lived dip from current levels.

The US Treasury Yields have risen back well on Friday. That keeps intact our broader bullish view. The yields can rise more from here. Supports are there to limit the downside in case the yields fall back from here. The German Yields have bounced back. But the near-term picture looks weak to see some more rise. Thereafter the broader uptrend can resume. The 10Yr GoI is holding well above its support. That keeps the upside open to see more rise from here.

Dow remains vulnerable below 53000, with a break below 52000 opening the way towards 51000. DAX can bounce towards 26000 if 25500 holds. Nifty needs to break above 23500 for a rise towards 23800. Nikkei has turned stronger and can test 67000, where a pullback may occur. Shanghai is testing 3950 resistance, with a break above it opening 4000-4050.

Brent and WTI continue to fall amid easing Middle East supply concerns, with further declines towards $100-$98 and $92-$90 possible. Gold can rise towards $4500-$4600 while above $4300. Silver remains positive above $63 and can rise towards $68-$70. Copper can rise towards $6.80-$6.85 while Natural Gas remains range-bound between $2.80-$3.00.