Morning briefing: The Euro on the other hand needs a break past 1.1750 to head towards 1.1800-1.2000

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index is trading lower within its 99-96 range. The Euro on the other hand needs a break past 1.1750 to head towards 1.18-1.20. EURINR will either have to rise past 101 or fall below 100 to give us further clarity. EURJPY needs to see a break past 170 to maintain its bullishness, else a corrective to 168-166 can happen. USDJPY is trading just near the immediate support near 144. While it holds, the pair can attempt to rise back towards 146-148 in the near term. USDCNY is trading near the lower end of its 7.20-7.16 range. The Aussie and Pound are holding well below the respective resistances near 0.66 and 1.38. They can decline further in the coming sessions while the resistance holds. USDINR is coming off in line with our bearish view so far. Going ahead, the ongoing fall is anticipated to extend towards 85.00-84.75 in the coming weeks before attempting to rise back.

The US Treasury yields have bounced slightly. But this is likely to be short-lived. Bias remains negative. We expect the yields to turn down and fall more from here. The German Yields remain higher but stable. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag the yields down again going forward. The 10Yr GoI is moving up towards the upper end of this range. We retain our bullish bias to see an upside breakout of this range and rise more. Need to see if this breakout is happening now or not.

Global indices are bullish with the Dow targeting a rise towards 44100–44200, the DAX targeting 24500-25000 and Nifty heading towards 26000-26300 while above support at 25400. Nikkei and Shanghai also trade higher today and look bullish for the near term with possible targets of 41000-42000 and 3450 respectively soon.

Brent and WTI are holding above immediate support levels, awaiting a bounce back toward $70–$72 and $68–$70, respectively. Gold has broken below $3,300 and may fall further to $3,250–$3,200 unless it reclaims $3,300. Silver remains supported at $36 with chances of a bounce to $37.5–$38. Copper stays bullish above $5.00, targeting $5.20–$5.30, while Natural Gas needs a break above $3.75 to move higher; else, it could dip back to $3.60–$3.50.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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