Morning briefing: The Euro could trade within its earlier range of 1.1600-1.1750

Fresh hopes from the US-Iran negotiations have brought down the Dollar Index, which could now target 98.50/98 while below 99. The Euro could trade within its earlier range of 1.16-1.1750. USDJPY is almost near 159, and a break higher would take it towards 160-161 soon. Aussie and Pound have risen back well, and if the rise sustains, they can test 0.72-0.7250 and 1.36/3650, respectively. The EURJPY can trade above 184 and slowly rise towards 185/186 in the coming sessions. EURINR may hold well above support at 111.35, but could see a dip today if the rise in the USDINR remains curbed. USDCNY has fallen back below 6.80 and can now test 6.78/75. USDINR may hold below 96.50 and see a pullback today towards 96 or lower.

The US Treasury and the German Yields have come down slightly. The Treasury yields have support to limit the downside. While the support holds, the bias is positive to see more rise in the coming weeks. The German yields on the other hand have to rise back immediately in order to go higher and avoid more fall. We will have to wait and see. The 10Yr GoI is heading higher as expected. An extended rise is also looking likely now.

The Dow Jones has risen back but remains well within its range. It can continue to oscillate in the sideways range, and we will have to wait for a breakout to get clarity. DAX has risen back sharply. But a strong follow-through rise is needed to negate the danger of the fall to 23000. Nikkei and Shanghai are struggling to rise back and remain weak. They can fall to 60000-59000 and 4050-4030 respectively. The Nifty has made a strong recovery from its low yesterday. A strong follow-through rise above 23800 will help it go higher and avoid the danger of seeing 23000.

Brent and WTI have dipped on fresh hopes from the US-Iran negotiations but are likely to remain elevated and volatile. Gold and Silver seem to be holding above $4500 and $75, respectively for now and may see a slow rise in the near term. Copper has found some support at $6.20, above which it can rise to $6.50. Natural Gas may continue to trade within the broader $2.80-$3.25 range.