DXY price outlook: US Dollar Index pressing against 0.618 support arc. Potential breakdown toward 98.55

Mohamad Gharib Independent Analyst

US Dollar Index (DXY): Arc cycle analysis

Overview: Based on Arc Cycle Analysis applied to the 4h chart, US Dollar Index is interacting with the 0.618 Support Arc within the current Arc Cycle. Price is testing this Support Arc, suggesting the potential for a bearish breakdown toward the next Support Arc.

Metric	Reading
Market Bias	Bearish
Preferred Scenario	Decline Toward the Next Support Arc
Primary Target Zone	98.55
Scenario Invalidation	Sustained close above 99.31
Current Arc Level	Support Arc (0.618)
Cycle Status	Testing Support Arc
Arc Integrity	Weakening

Market outlook

Price is testing the 0.618 Support Arc, where continued selling pressure may result in a breakdown toward the next Support Arc. A sustained breakdown below the Support Arc would support continued movement toward the next Support Arc at 98.55 (0.786 Arc).

Conversely, failure to achieve a sustained 4h close below the Support Arc would invalidate the bearish scenario and could shift the outlook toward the next Resistance Arc.

Author

Mohamad Gharib

Independent Analyst

Mohamad Gharib is a Financial Markets Analyst and Quantitative Researcher with more than 18 years of experience in financial markets, including 15 years as an FX Quant Trader.

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