Morning briefing: The Euro continue to hold within the respective range 1.1500-1.1800

The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR continue to hold within the respective ranges of 97-99, 1.15-1.18 and 102.00-103.50 in the near term. A better directional clarity could be expected after the US NFP, Avg hrly Earnings and the Unemployment scheduled today. EURJPY can trade within the 172-174 region while the resistance at 174 holds. USDJPY below 149, can trade within 149-147/46 region. USDCNY is headed towards the support near 7.1300-7.1250. The Aussie can continue to hold its 0.655-0.640 range, while the Pound can rise towards 1.35 or even 1.36 in the near term. USDINR is slowly inching higher and the view remains intact to see a rise towards 88.25-88.50 in the coming weeks.

The US Treasury yields have declined sharply, breaking below their intermediate supports. That opens the door for more fall from here. The US NFP and Unemployment rate data release today will be important to watch. The German yields have dipped further. But the upcoming support can halt the fall and trigger a rise. The broader uptrend is intact. The 10Yr GoI has broken the range on the downside as expected. That keeps intact our bearish view. The yield can fall more from here.

Most indices are trading positive except the Shanghai. The Dow is headed towards 46000. The DAX has bounced well and while above support at 23500, a rise to 24500 can be possible in the next few sessions. Nifty saw profit taking yesterday. The range of 24400-24850/25000 may hold for now. Nikkei is likely to test 43000 soon. Thereafter it has to be seen if the rise can sustain higher towards 43500-44000 or not. Shanghai fell sharply yesterday after media reports suggested potential regulatory actions to curb speculation, along with the end of a major military parade in Beijing. Watch price action near support at 3700.

Crude prices have slipped below key levels with Brent testing $66.35 and WTI $62.72, but both are holding near immediate supports at $66 and $62 respectively, which if sustained could trigger rebounds towards $68–$70 for Brent and $64–$66 for WTI. Gold is steady above $3600 but needs a decisive break past $3650 to extend gains towards $3700–$3800, else risks a pullback to $3500–$3400. Silver must clear $42 to regain upward momentum towards $42.50–$43.00, failing which it may drop to $40.50–$40.00. Copper stays constructive above $4.40 with scope to rise towards $4.70–$4.75, while Natural gas remains bullish for $3.10–$3.20.

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