Morning briefing: Euro can test the 1.1400–1.1350 target
The Dollar Index and Euro can test targets of 101 and 1.140–1.135 respectively. EURINR appears bearish toward 101.50–101.00 while trading below 102.50. EURJPY and USDJPY have scope to rise towards 178-180 & 154-155 in the near term. USDCNY can continue to trade within 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie is maintaining the 0.645–0.660 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and if sustained, could fall toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR remained closed yesterday on the account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.
The US Treasury yields are going up in line with our expectation. The yields can rise more from here to test their resistance after which a corrective dip is possible. The German Yields sustain higher. There is limited room on the upside. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag the yields lower eventually. The 10Yr GoI has bounced well from its low on Tuesday. But while below its immediate resistance, there are chances to see a dip again.
The Dow and Dax have risen in the latest session but could have room for a test of 46500 and 23500 before moving up towards 48000 and 24500 respectively. Nifty fell as expected. It can test support at 25400 before rising towards 25800 gradually. Nikkei saw profit taking in the last two sessions but has risen today. While above 48000, Nikkei can retest 52000-54000 in the coming weeks. Shanghai trades slightly in the positive. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.
Crude prices fell sharply as Brent dropped to $63.44 and WTI to $59.62 after higher EIA inventories, keeping the outlook weak towards $63-62 and $59-58. Gold rebounded from $3935.70 and may stay within $3900-4100, while Silver’s bounce to $48 needs a break above for $50-52, else it risks for a fall towards $45-44. Copper held support at $4.88 and could rise to $5.10-5.20 within a $5.20-4.90 range. Natural Gas steadied near $4.20 and may head towards $4.40-4.50 while above $4.00.
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis
Author
Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.
