Morning briefing: Euro can test the 1.1400–1.1350 target

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar Index and Euro can test targets of 101 and 1.140–1.135 respectively. EURINR appears bearish toward 101.50–101.00 while trading below 102.50. EURJPY and USDJPY have scope to rise towards 178-180 & 154-155 in the near term. USDCNY can continue to trade within 7.10-7.15 region. The Aussie is maintaining the 0.645–0.660 range. The Pound has dipped below 1.3140 and if sustained, could fall toward 1.28 in the medium term. USDINR remained closed yesterday on the account of Guru Nanak Jayanti.

The US Treasury yields are going up in line with our expectation. The yields can rise more from here to test their resistance after which a corrective dip is possible. The German Yields sustain higher. There is limited room on the upside. Resistance ahead can cap the upside and drag the yields lower eventually. The 10Yr GoI has bounced well from its low on Tuesday. But while below its immediate resistance, there are chances to see a dip again.

The Dow and Dax have risen in the latest session but could have room for a test of 46500 and 23500 before moving up towards 48000 and 24500 respectively. Nifty fell as expected. It can test support at 25400 before rising towards 25800 gradually. Nikkei saw profit taking in the last two sessions but has risen today. While above 48000, Nikkei can retest 52000-54000 in the coming weeks. Shanghai trades slightly in the positive. It is likely to trade within the 3900-4000 region for the near term.

Crude prices fell sharply as Brent dropped to $63.44 and WTI to $59.62 after higher EIA inventories, keeping the outlook weak towards $63-62 and $59-58. Gold rebounded from $3935.70 and may stay within $3900-4100, while Silver’s bounce to $48 needs a break above for $50-52, else it risks for a fall towards $45-44. Copper held support at $4.88 and could rise to $5.10-5.20 within a $5.20-4.90 range. Natural Gas steadied near $4.20 and may head towards $4.40-4.50 while above $4.00.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

EUR/USD climbs to daily highs near 1.1820

EUR/USD now picks up pace and advances to the area of daily peaks north of the 1.1800 barrier at the end of the week. The pair’s decent move higher comes against the backdrop of a generalised lack of direction in the FX galaxy and the mild offered stance in the US Dollar.

GBP/USD trims losses, retests 1.3460

After briefly challenging its key 200-day SMA near 1.3440, GBP/USD now manages to regain some balance and revisit the 1.3460 zone on Friday. Cable’s pullback comes as the selling pressure on the Greenback gathers traction, reigniting some recovery in the risk-linked space.

Gold flirts with four-week highs past $5,200

Gold extends its rebound, climbing for a third consecutive session and pushing back above the $5,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The move higher continues to draw support from lingering geopolitical tensions and the ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, both of which are keeping safe-haven demand firmly in play.

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple consolidate with short-term cautious bullish bias

Bitcoin, Ethereum and Ripple are consolidating near key technical areas on Friday, showing mild signs of stabilization after recent volatility. BTC holds above $67,000 despite mild losses so far this week, while ETH hovers around $2,000 after a rejection near its upper consolidation boundary.

US and Israel attack Iran, risk aversion to sweep global markets

Early Saturday, United States President Donald Trump announced that the US had begun “major combat operations” in Iran, following Israel’s pre-emptive missile attacks against Tehran. The US bombed multiple locations in Tehran, Iran’s Tasnim news agency reported. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the attacks on Iran were aimed to remove an “existential threat”.

Starknet unveils strkBTC, shielded Bitcoin transactions on Ethereum Layer 2

Starknet, the Ethereum Layer 2 network developed by StarkWare, today announced strkBTC, a wrapped Bitcoin asset that introduces optional shielding while preserving full DeFi composability.