Morning briefing: It would be important to see if the Euro continues to hold above 1.1400 or not

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index has dipped further leading to a rise in the Euro above 1.14. It would be important to see if the Euro continues to hold above 1.14 or not. EURINR is holding well above 107 and needs to rise back above 108 to rise further. EURJPY has also risen well as expected. The rise, if continues can take it slowly towards 186. USDJPY has broken above 162 and if it holds, it can rise to 163/164. USDCNY has dipped and while below 6.80, it can test 6.78/76. Aussie is expected to rise from current levels while Pound needs to hold well above 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may cap it's upside to 95/95.10 while a fall to 94.05-93.85 is likely on a break below immediate support at 94.15.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower but stable after declining below their key support. They can fall more from here and then reverse higher again. The German Yields remain stable around their key support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI is at its key support. A bounce from here and a strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance is needed to get some relief. We will have to wait and watch.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow needs a break above 53000 to target 53500-54000. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 51000-50000. DAX stays weak below 25500 and can decline towards 24500-24250. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to revive the upmove towards 24100-24200. Nikkei has bounced back from support and can rise towards 71000-71500. Shanghai is holding above 4000 and can extend the recovery towards 4100-4150.

Brent can test $70 before bouncing back towards $80-$85, while WTI may decline towards $65 before recovering towards $75-$80. Gold continues to hold above the key $4000 support, keeping the outlook positive for a rise towards $4100-$4150. Silver and Copper have seen a minor pullback but remain constructive while supports near $55 and $5.90 hold, with scope to rise towards $65-$70 and $6.25-$6.30 respectively. Natural Gas has weakened but is likely to remain within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

GBP/USD drifts lower below 1.3250 on steady BoE rate path, traders await US jobs data

The GBP/USD pair loses traction to around 1.3240 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. A potential rate hike from the US Federal Reserve provides some support to the US Dollar against the British Pound. The US ADP employment data and the US Nonfarm Payrolls data will take center stage later this week.

EUR/USD looks to extend intraday descent below 1.1400

The EUR/USD pair attracts some sellers during the Asian session on Tuesday, snapping a three-day winning streak and stalling its recent recovery from the lowest level since May 2025 set last week. Spot prices slip below the 1.1400 mark amid a firmer US Dollar and seem vulnerable to weaken further.

Gold recovers slightly from YTD low; not out of the woods yet

Gold recovers slightly from its lowest level since November 2025, touched during the Asian session, albeit it sticks to a negative bias for the second straight day. Against the backdrop of renewed Mideast tensions, mixed signals on US-Iran talks assist the US Dollar to attract some dip-buyers and stall its recent pullback from the highest level since May 2025.

Ripple defends critical support, Stellar extends recovery

Ripple (XRP) trades around the key $1.00 psychological level, consolidating as the token awaits its next directional catalyst. Stellar (XLM) extends its recovery above $0.178 after posting modest gains at the start of this week.

Just like Fed, is BoJ’s independence under threat?

When talking about central bank independence, most of the focus has been on Donald Trump’s pressure on the Federal Reserve. But a similar story, a quieter one for now, seems to be happening on the other side of the Pacific: Japan’s government may be testing the Bank of Japan’s independence.

Kevin Warsh isn't expected to say much in Sintra: That's exactly why markets will listen

Financial markets could find an important catalyst in the enchanting, fairytale-like landscape of Sintra this week. The ECB Forum will, as it does every year, gather the crème de la crème of central banks. The new boss at the Fed, who has clearly said that the Fed should stop explaining everything, will need to talk – and traders should listen.