Morning briefing: It would be important to see if the Euro continues to hold above 1.1400 or not

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index has dipped further leading to a rise in the Euro above 1.14. It would be important to see if the Euro continues to hold above 1.14 or not. EURINR is holding well above 107 and needs to rise back above 108 to rise further. EURJPY has also risen well as expected. The rise, if continues can take it slowly towards 186. USDJPY has broken above 162 and if it holds, it can rise to 163/164. USDCNY has dipped and while below 6.80, it can test 6.78/76. Aussie is expected to rise from current levels while Pound needs to hold well above 1.32 to avoid further decline from here. USDINR may cap it's upside to 95/95.10 while a fall to 94.05-93.85 is likely on a break below immediate support at 94.15.

The US Treasury Yields remain lower but stable after declining below their key support. They can fall more from here and then reverse higher again. The German Yields remain stable around their key support. They have to rise back immediately in order to avoid more fall. The 10Yr GoI is at its key support. A bounce from here and a strong follow-through rise above the immediate resistance is needed to get some relief. We will have to wait and watch.

Global equities remain mixed. Dow needs a break above 53000 to target 53500-54000. Else, it remains vulnerable to a fall towards 51000-50000. DAX stays weak below 25500 and can decline towards 24500-24250. Nifty needs to hold above 24000 to revive the upmove towards 24100-24200. Nikkei has bounced back from support and can rise towards 71000-71500. Shanghai is holding above 4000 and can extend the recovery towards 4100-4150.

Brent can test $70 before bouncing back towards $80-$85, while WTI may decline towards $65 before recovering towards $75-$80. Gold continues to hold above the key $4000 support, keeping the outlook positive for a rise towards $4100-$4150. Silver and Copper have seen a minor pullback but remain constructive while supports near $55 and $5.90 hold, with scope to rise towards $65-$70 and $6.25-$6.30 respectively. Natural Gas has weakened but is likely to remain within the broader $3.00-$3.50 range.

Visit KSHITIJ official site to download the full analysis

Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

GBP/USD turns negative; slips back to 1.3530

GBP/USD comes under pressure and weakens toward the 1.3530 zone on Tuesday. Cable thus leaves behind two daily upticks in a row and retreats further from Monday’s multi-week tops past 1.3570 following humble gains in the Greenback and disheartening UK jobs data.

EUR/USD comes under pressure near 1.1570

EUR/USD could not sustain the earlier bullish attempt toward the proximity of 1.1600 the figure, coming under fresh downside pressure and revisiting the 1.1580-1.1570 band as the NA session draws to a close on Tuesday. The better tone in the US Dollar in the latter part of the day weighs on the pair amid steady volatility in the Middle East. Looking forward, the release of the FOMC Minutes takes centre stage on Wednesday.

Gold remains offered around $4,350

Gold accelerates its daily correction and revisits the $4,350 zone per troy ounce on Tuesday. The precious metal sets aside two daily advances in a row and follows the absence of direction in the US Dollar, declining US Treasury yields across the curve and continuous uncertainty in the Middle East crisis.

HYPE extends gains as Hyperliquid urges SEC action on pre-IPO futures framework

Hyperliquid (HYPE) retains a broad bullish outlook, trading above $59.00 on Tuesday. The decentralized exchange (DEX) native token marks the second consecutive day of gains as bulls return, eyeing a short-term breakout above $60.00.

Fiscal concerns and doubts on Fed independence send US yields to long-term highs

US Treasury yields keep rising across the curve this week, with the yield for the 30-year Treasury bond reaching its highest level since 2007, during the global financial crisis, at 5.33% so far on Monday. A mix of concerns about the ballooning US fiscal deficit and growing doubts about the Federal Reserve’s Independence are increasing pressure on US Government Bonds.

Why is Crude Oil priced for a reopening the ships haven't made?

Fourteen vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday. Before the war, the count ran near 120 a day. In the sessions since the waterway was publicly declared open, Brent has drifted back to $87 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $81, both a little lower again on Wednesday, with daily momentum on each unwound from the top of its range in late July to the low twenties now.