Morning briefing: Euro is likely to trade within the 1.1500-1.1750 region

The Dollar Index, Euro and the EURINR are likely to trade within the 99-97, 1.1500-1.1750 and 101.50-103.00 regions respectively. EURJPY and USDJPY can get dragged to 170-169 and 145 as well if a break below 171 and 147 happens. USDCNY can test 7.14 soon. Aussie and Pound are headed towards the resistance at 0.655 and 1.3530 respectively which can be tested soon. Thereafter, whether the pairs extend the rise further or fall back will have to be seen. USDINR was closed yesterday. While below 88, a fall back towards 87.50-87.25 looks possible. US GDP Data release is scheduled today.

The US Treasury yields have come down again and keeps alive the chances of testing their support. Overall, a broad sideways range is possible for some time. The US PCE data release will be important to watch. A soft PCE number will strengthen the case for rate and drag the yields lower. The German yields have reversed lower and can test their support in the near term. Failure to rise back from the support can drag them lower. The 10Yr GoI spiked breaking above its key resistances and has come down again. While the resistance holds, there are good chances for the yield to come down in the coming days.

The Dow Jones has risen back above 45000 and could head towards 46000-47000 while the Dax slipped yesterday after weak German Consumer sentiment data. Dax could be bearish towards 23500 initially before bouncing back higher towards 24500 in the medium term. Nifty is likely to continue declining towards 24600-24500. Nikkei is slightly up today and needs a decisive break above 42700/800 to rise further, while Shanghai has declined on the 200% tariff threat by the US and could decline to 3700 while below 4000.

Crude prices recovered on short covering but faces resistance near $68 (Brent) and $64 (WTI), keeping it vulnerable to $67–$65 and $62–$60 respectively in the near term. Gold is testing $3,450, a break of which can take it to $3,500, else it risks pulling back to $3,350. Silver remains bullish towards $40 and beyond, while Copper, after a sharp bounce from $4.3745, is challenging resistance at $4.50 and could head towards $4.60–$4.65 if broken. Natural Gas is holding strong near $2.90, and a sustained break higher could extend the rise to $3.00–$3.10, though failure to clear may drag it back to $2.80–$2.70.

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