Morning briefing: Euro can test 1.1500

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index trades Higher today, heading back towards 100 while Euro can test 1.15. EURINR has dipped but the fall looks temporary before resumption of the uptrend. USDJPY and EURJPY are likey in a temporary correction phase post wich upmove can resume. Aussie, Pound and USDINR all have scope for an initial decline for the next few sessions before resuming the long term uptrend. USDCNY continues to look bearish.

The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to hold higher. The Treasury Yields can rise more if they breach their immediate resistance. The German Yields have room to rise more and continue to remain bullish. The 10Yr GoI has risen above 7%. That keeps intact our bullish view. The 10Yr GoI can rise more.

Dow has bounced from 52000 support but faces resistance near 53500. DAX needs a break below 25300 to decline towards 25000. Nifty remains weak below 23500 and can decline towards 23000 unless it breaks above 23500-23600. Nikkei remains vulnerable towards 63000-62000 while below 65000. Shanghai has held above 3850 and can rise towards 3950-4000.

Brent and WTI have fallen after testing $110 and $105, while breaks above these levels could trigger further gains. Gold needs to hold above $4300 to retain upside potential towards $4600. Silver remains weak and can decline towards $60. Copper has fallen sharply and can decline further towards $6.30-$6.25. Natural Gas is likely to remain range-bound between $2.80-$3.00.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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