Morning briefing: Euro can fall further towards 1.02-1.0100

The Higher US NFP and lower US Unemployment data on Friday led to significant strength in the Dollar. As a result, the Dollar Index rose to the high of 109.966 and has a scope to test 111 on the upside before getting topped out. The Euro on the other hand slipped below 1.03 and can fall further towards 1.02-1.01 in the near term. EURINR needs to see a decisive break on either side of its range of 90-88 for further directional clarity. USDJPY is back within its earlier range of 158-156. AUDUSD, Pound and EURJPY appear bearish towards 0.61-0.60, 1.20 and 160 respectively in the near term. USDCNY can gradually head towards 7.35. USDINR has moved in line with our bullish view. For the current week, we expect the rise to extend towards 86.25 and the pair to oscillate within 85.80-86.25 region keeping the current upside momentum intact. Watch out for the IN-CPI data release scheduled today.

Strong jobs data has taken the US Treasury yields higher on Friday as expectation for a much slower rate cuts increased after this data release. Both the US Treasury and the German yields are coming closer to a crucial level. Need to see if the yields are going to see an extended rise breaking above this crucial level or reversing lower. The price action in the next few days is going to be very important. The 10Yr GoI is attempting to move up. Resistance is ahead which has to be broken to move strongly higher to negate the fall that we have been expecting.

The Dow Jones has fallen below 42000 and is expected to test the support of 41800. Failure to hold the support would drag the index lower to 41500-41300, and if the support holds, we might see a rise towards 42300-42500. DAX lacks the strength to move higher and could come down to 19800. Nifty has remained below 23500 and could come down to 23000-22500. Nikkei is closed today. Shanghai has fallen below 3200 and is holding the support of 3150 as of now. While the support holds, it could rise towards 3250.

Crude and Natural Gas prices surged on Friday after the US imposed new sanctions on Russia's oil, which could restrict global oil supplies. A further rise towards 82-84 (Brent), 80-82 (WTI), and 4.4-4.6 (Natural Gas) looks likely in the near term. Gold and Silver are facing resistances near their respective levels and appear bearish, with targets of 2680-2650 and 31.0-30.5, respectively. Copper may rise towards its immediate resistance at 4.4 before falling back to 4.2-4.10.

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