Morning briefing: EUR/USD can trade within 1.1700-1.1800
The Dollar Index can consolidate between 98.75-97.75 region for some time before a breakout occurs. EURUSD & EURINR can trade within 1.17-1.18 & 105.00-106.25 region. EURJPY & USDJPY can remain range bound between 182-186 & 154-158 region for some time. USDCNY can fall towards 6.95 or even further in the near term. Aussie & Pound can attempt to rise towards 0.68 & 1.355-1.360, while both the pairs trade above 0.665 & 1.344 respectively. USDINR is stuck within 89.75-90.00 region. While the resistance at 90 holds, a fall towards 89 region is expected in the near term.
The US Treasury and the German yields have risen and could continue to rise in the next few sessions. The Indian 10Yr GOI seems to be holding below 6.60% and could trade within 6.55/50-6.60% region for sometime before eventually breaking higher.
The Dow is expected to bounce from 48000 and head towards 49000 while Dax has resistance near 25000 which if holds can lead to a fall towards 24000. Nifty has risen well and can head towards 26300-26600 while above 26100. Nikkei and Shanghai are closed today.
Crude prices remains range-bound below resistances, with Brent between $62–$58 and WTI between $59–$55. Gold is holding above the $4300 support and can bounce towards $4500–$4600. Silver has tested $70 and may recover to $74–$76 if this support holds. Copper remains supported near $5.6 and can rise towards $5.80–$6.00. Natural gas may dip further to $3.4 before a bounce is seen.
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Author
Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.
