Morning briefing: EUR/USD can test 1.1300

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The Dollar index has risen well as expected and looks further bullish while Euro can test 1.13. USDJPY has risen past 158 and is headed towards 160 while EURJPY can rise to 182. USDINR has also risen as expected and is headed towards 96.25/50 on a decisive break above 96. Aussie could test 0.69 while support at 1.32 may hold on the Pound.

The US Treasury and the German Yields continue to move up. They both have come closer to our expected levels much faster than expected. If the momentum sustains, an extended rise is possible in the coming days. The 10Yr GoI opened with a wide gap-up and has closed on a strong note. It has room to rise further and test a key resistance. The price action thereafter will need a close watch for a reversal.

Dow remains weak and can decline towards 51500-51000. DAX needs to sustain above 25500 to avoid a decline towards 25250-25000. Nifty remains vulnerable below 23000, with a break opening 22750-22500. Nikkei can decline towards 65000-64000 while below 67000. Shanghai remains weak and can test 3850, keeping the 3850-3950 range intact.

Brent and WTI have fallen amid reports of potential US-Iran talks over the Strait of Hormuz. Gold needs to hold $4300 for a bounce towards $4500-$4600. Silver can recover towards $66-$68 while above $63. Copper remains vulnerable towards $6.70-$6.60. Natural Gas can test $3.00 before potentially recovering towards $3.50-$3.60.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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