Morning briefing: EUR/USD can fall 1.1800

Vikram Murarka Kshitij Consultancy Services

The DXY has a scope to rebound towards 98 while it remains above 96. EURUSD & EURINR can fall towards 1.18 & 109/108 while they trade below 1.21 & 111 respectively. and 110. EURJPY can hold the 182-186 range for now. USDJPY can target 156 in the near term while it remains above 152. USDCNY may ease towards 6.90. Aussie & Pound can decline towards 0.69-0.68 & 1.36 in the coming sessions if the ongoing fall persists. USDINR tested the resistance near 92 and closed slightly lower. A break above 92 can take it higher towards 92.25-92.50. US PPI data is scheduled for release today.

The US Treasury yields sustain higher. The bias remains positive to break the immediate resistance and rise further. The German Yields remain stable. They continue to remain vulnerable for a fall. A strong rise above their immediate resistance is needed to negate the expected fall. The 10Yr GoI has come down from its high on Thursday. There is room to rise more from here before a reversal happens.

The Dow is holding above support at 48500 and can rise towards 49500/600 in the near term while the Dax has declined sharply and has scope for further dip to 24000-23800 in the coming days. Nifty could trade between 25000-25500/600 for the near term. Thereafter, a decisive break past 25600 will be bullish towards 26000-26500 in the longer run. Nikkei could rise towards 54000/55000 while above support near 53000. Shanghai can continue trade within 4200-4100.

Brent and WTI have strengthened on Middle East geopolitical tensions, with further upside seen towards $72–$73 and $67–$68 respectively. Gold has pulled back from record highs and needs to hold above $5600 to revive upside momentum. Silver remains weak below $120 with downside risks. Copper is easing from recent highs but stays positive above $6. Natural Gas has turned higher, with a break above $4 opening room for further gains.

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Author

Vikram Murarka

Kshitij Consultancy Services

Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.

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