Morning briefing: Euro can re-test 1.09-1.0930 before pausing
Good Morning!
Dollar Index may get some support from 102 while Euro can re-test 1.09-1.0930 before pausing. USDJPY and EURJPY trade higher and could move up towards 133/134 and 144/145 respectively. Aussie and Pound have also risen as expected and could head towards 1.24/25 and 0.6750 respectively. EURINR continues to trade higher and can head towards 90 while USDINR could attempt to rise within the 82.10-82.40/60 range. USDCNY is bearish below resistance near 6.90 while USDRUB could be ranged in the 76-78 region.
The US Treasury yields have moved further up. Resistances are ahead which if broken can take yields further up and turn the outlook bullish. Else the yields can fall back and remain in a sideways range. The German yields have risen further and have room to move up from here. The expected fall to test the supports is not happening. The 10Yr and 5Yr GoI are holding well above their supports. A rise above their immediate resistance can open the doors for more upside and will negate the danger of the deep fall that we have been expecting.
Dow and Nikkei lacks follow-through rise above the upper end of their sideways range. DAX has come off from its intra day high and needs to rise past 15300 to strengthen the momentum on the upside. Shanghai has declined towards the support at 3225. Nifty remains range bound.
Brent and WTI has risen well and are likely to test their immediate resistance at $80 and $75 respectively. Gold and Silver has scope to test their immediate resistance while above the support at 1945/1950 and 23.00 respectively. Copper is likely to remain range bound in the near term.
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Author
Vikram Murarka
Kshitij Consultancy Services
Vikram has been forecasting, trading and hedging currencies since 1991. Beginning his career as a currency trader in Essar Group, he was managing an FX exposure of $1.2 bln.
