Markets trade mixed

USD: Jun '26 is Up at 99.905.  

Energies: Jun '26 Crude is Up at 89.20.

Financials: The Jun '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 3 ticks and trading at 111.32.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 340 ticks Lower and trading at 7313.00.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4184.00.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Up which is not normal, and the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Lower and Crude is trading Higher which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. All of Asia traded Higher except the Hang Seng Index, All of Europe is trading Lower.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• ADP Weekly Employment Change is out at 8:15 AM EST.   Major.
• Richmond MFG Index is out at 10 AM EST.   Major.
• FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 3:55 PM EST.  Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST with no economic news pending.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 8:30 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Jun '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of barcharts

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias, but the markets traded Mixed as the Dow closed 86 points Higher, and the other indices closed Lower on the session.  Today our bias is Mixed or Neutral.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

It appears as though the truce everyone in DC is talking about hasn't happened as Iran still hasn't come to terms with the United States.