Markets say mainly yes to upside

USD: Sep '26 is Up at 101.430.  

Energies: Aug '26 Crude is Down at 69.54.

Financials: The Sep '26 30 Year T-Bond is Lower by 2 ticks and trading at 114.01.

Indices: The Jun '26 S&P 500 emini ES contract is 226 ticks Higher and trading at 7485.50.

Gold: The Aug'26 Gold contract is trading Down at 4003.30.

Initial conclusion

This is not a correlated market. The USD is Up and Crude is Down which is normal, but the 30-Year T-Bond is trading Lower.  The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is Higher, then the bonds should follow and vice-versa. The S&P is Higher and Crude is trading Lower which is correlated. Gold is trading Lower which is correlated with the US dollar trading Up.  I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one goes Up the other goes Down. Asia traded Higher with the exception of the Nikkei exchange, all of Europe is trading Higher.  

Possible challenges to traders                                                  

• Core PCE Price Index m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Final GDP q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.   
• Final GDP Price Index q/q is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Unemployment Claims is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major. 
• Durable Goods Orders m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Core Durable Goods Orders m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Personal Income m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Personal Spending m/m is out at 8:30 AM EST. Major.
• Natural Gas Storage is out at 10:30 AM EST. Major.
• FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 3:40 PM EST. Major.

Traders, please note that we've changed the Bond instrument from the 10 Year (ZN) to the 2 Year (ZT).  They work exactly the same.

We've elected to switch gears a bit and show correlation between the 2-year Treasury notes (ZT) and the S&P futures contract.  The YM contract is the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and the purpose is to show reverse correlation between the two instruments.  Remember it's likened to a seesaw, when up goes up the other should go down and vice versa.

Yesterday the ZT climbed Higher at around 8 AM EST.   The Dow dived Lower at around the same time.  Look at the charts below and you'll see a pattern for both assets. The ZT climbed Higher at around 10 AM EST and the Dow dived Lower around the same time.  These charts represent the newest version of Bar Charts, and I've changed the timeframe to a 15-minute chart to display better.  This represented a Long opportunity on the 2-year note, as a trader you could have netted about a dozen plus ticks per contract on this trade.  Each tick is worth $6.25.  Please note: the front month for the ZT is now Sep '26.  I've changed the format to filled Candlesticks (not hollow) such that it may be more apparent and visible.

Charts courtesy of BarCharts

ZT -Sep 26 - 6/24/26

Dow - Jun 2026- 6/24/26

Bias

Yesterday we gave the markets an Upside bias and for the most part the markets were Higher.  Dow closed 512 points Higher, the S&P 52 points Higher but the Nasdaq fell by 110.  Today our bias is to the Upside.

Could this change? Of Course.  Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.

Commentary

The markets as of late are very confused between the situation is Iran and the affordability concerns.  Each trading day will be different as the markets rise and fall.  Want to learn Market Correlation and determine market direction hours before the Opening Bell?