Markets push higher as tech leadership holds firm

Next week is Davo’s….the theme this year is ‘A Spirit of Dialogue’ – bringing global leaders together to tackle challenges like AI, geo-political shifts and sustainable growth thru cooperation.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company — that’s really all you need to know.

Yesterday morning they delivered a blowout quarter, beating estimates and setting new records — effectively silencing the skeptics who’ve been betting against both TSM and the broader AI trade. Management made it crystal clear: demand for their chips — the backbone of advanced AI computing — is insatiable.

The market got the message. The entire semiconductor complex ripped higher, with the iShares Semiconductor ETF (SOXX) up 1.6%, while the leaders surged: TSMC +4.4%, NVIDIA +2.1%, Advanced Micro Devices +1.9%, ASML +5.3%, Lam Research +4.1%, and Applied Materials +5.7% — all leading the way.

This strength also slowed the recent rotation out of tech and into other parts of the market — which raises the real question: why were you rotating out of tech in the first place?

The key point is this: you shouldn’t be rotating out of tech simply because you’re a little nervous — assuming, of course, you’re not materially overweight (and only you can define what “overweight” means for your portfolio). The better approach is to maintain your core tech exposure and deploy new money into other sectors, not dismantle leadership.

Unless you believe the tech and AI cycle is over — and it clearly isn’t — rotating out simply doesn’t make sense. In fact, that brief rotation, which pushed prices modestly lower, created opportunity, allowing investors to add high-quality, high-growth names at a discount.

Now, just to be clear — while TSM sent the semiconductor space sharply higher, not every corner of tech participated. Disruptive tech lagged, down about 1.5%, cybersecurity slipped roughly 0.4%, and some of the more speculative quantum names took a hit as well. That’s rotation within tech — not a breakdown of tech.

And in the end, we’ve talked about this before. The tech sector — which once again outperformed in 2025 — isn’t breaking. It’s pausing, consolidating, and digesting gains. There’s nothing in the data to suggest the game is over, and yesterday’s results from Taiwan Semi made that crystal clear.

Remember, this is not a binary decision. It’s not tech works or tech is dead. You don’t abandon leadership just because it pauses. The smart move is to stay invested, stay disciplined, and add exposure elsewhere with new money — not by tearing down what’s already working.

And so – the excitement in tech – changed the tone in the markets…Futures were higher and when the bell rang, the market opened higher and continued to push higher throughout the day…and at the closing bell – here is how it stacked up –

The Dow gained 300 pts or 0.6%, the S&P added 17 pts or 0.25%, the Nasdaq added 58 pts or 0.25%, (I think that gets another boost today), the Russell – which has been bucking the trend all along – added another 23 pts or 0.9% to its gains, the Transports rose 325 pts or 1.8%, the Equal Weight S&P rose 39 pts or 0.5% while the Mag 7 added 58 pts or 0.2%.

Yesterday also saw 5 out 5 earnings reports – BEAT the estimates – I have to go back and look, but I do not think we have had one MISS so far….Ok – we did, just one – Calavo Growers – CVGW – they missed, they grow avocados…..whatever! I missed it, because I am not invested in Avocado’s…..sorry!

Today we are going to get results from PNC & STT – both names trading higher in the pre-mkt…up about 1.2%.

Eco data includes the NY FED Services Business Activity, Industrial Production of +0.1% and Capacity Utilization of 76%.

We’ll also get the NAHB Housing Market Index, (which isn’t usually a market mover) which is expected to come in around 40. That tells you homebuilders remain pessimistic — but not overly so.

Here’s how to think about that number. The index, reported by the National Association of Home Builders, is a diffusion index. A reading of 50 is neutral. Anything above 50 suggests builders view conditions as good, while below 50 signals conditions are viewed as poor. How far above or below 50 matters — it tells you the degree of optimism or pessimism.

At 40, sentiment is clearly negative, but it’s not distressed. Builders are cautious, not panicked — pressured by mortgage rates and affordability, not a collapse in underlying demand.

So, given the recent uptick in mortgages and the recent surge of home sales (think demand) – both new and existing – we could see this number come in better than 40 even closer to 50 – so watch the homebuilders at 9:59 am.

Now, investors are already prepping for the housing to pick its head up – notice the performance of the Homebuilders ETF – XHB – it is up 12% ytd…. (not so bad for 3 weeks!).

Yesterday it was Utilities that led the charge higher – rising by 1%....Industrials +0.9%, Real Estate +0.75%, Tech +0.5%, Financials, Consumer Discretionary & Basic Materials all rose by +0.4%, Consumer Staples up 0.2%, while Communications, Energy and Healthcare all lost ground – falling 0.4%, 14% and 0.6% respectively.

Bonds churned and did nothing really- the TLT and TLH both essentially unchanged. 10 yr yields are at 4.16%, while 30 yr yields are 4.8%.

Oil – which has come off of its recent spike – due to cooling geo-political tensions- is finding support between the trendlines…. $58.40 and $60. This morning it is up 75 cts at $59.90.

Gold is churning in a very tight range…. $4,590/$4620. This morning it is down $5 at $4,611. Same narrative…nothing new to add.

European markets are a bit lower…. European troops have arrived in Greenland ahead of a Democratic visit today with Danish MPs. Wednesday’s meeting between the Danes and the WH ended with no ‘breakthrough’, but they didn’t rule out further discussions…. Now that’s interesting.

U.S. futures are all higher this morning — Dow +55, S&P +22, Nasdaq +160, Russell +12.

We’re still waiting on the Supreme Court —- apparently they are playing ‘I’ve got a secret’. The lag in announcing suggests to me that it is not going to go the way Trump wants it. The prediction markets – Kalshi and Polymarket – are both predicting a loss for Trump…..but the market – does not appear to be that concerned. I think because – the WH and Scotty have made it clear that they have other ‘options.

The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 6,944, up 17 points. This morning’s action suggests gains ahead — and if we get a “decision” at some point today, expect a headline-driven reaction from the algos.

That said, I’m not in the camp that a negative decision automatically means you sell the market. Markets don’t trade in absolutes — and this isn’t a binary outcome. A disappointing headline may create volatility, but volatility creates opportunity, not obligation.

And if, by chance, we get a positive decision, then the path of least resistance remains higher — reinforcing the broader trend, rewarding patience, and reminding investors that staying disciplined matters more than trading headlines.

For now, the index remains comfortably inside a well-defined range, with trendline support near 6,820 and resistance around 7,000 — a number that’s more about investor psychology than market mechanics. The pattern hasn’t changed and neither has the playbook: advance, backfill, then advance again.

So, ignore the noise. Headlines can be loud, algorithms are emotional, and fast money is impatient. Discipline wins. Stay focused and stick to your plan. The market doesn’t reward panic — it rewards conviction.

Pork cutlets caprese

Pork Cutlet Milanese with Tomato, Arugula and Red Onion Salad. This is a great dish – colorful, hearty, and easy to make.

For this you need - Pork cutlets (pounded thin), flour, eggs, seasoned breadcrumbs, olive oil, butter, fresh arugula, Ripe Cherry Tomatoes, sliced red onion, lemon juice, and shaved parmegiana cheese.

In a bowl – beat 3 eggs (add a splash of milk), on a separate plate put some flour and on a third plate – place the seasoned breadcrumbs. (It is like an assembly line – capisce?)

Begin by pounding the cutlets to thin them out. Now – in this order – dredge the cutlet in the flour – dip in the egg wash and then cover in breadcrumbs – pressing gently so that the breadcrumbs adhere to the cutlet. Place on a plate. Place in the fridge for about an hour.

Preheat the oven to broil.

After an hour – place a Pyrex dish in the oven with enough olive oil to cover the bottom of the dish. You can add a dollop of butter (never a problem). Heat the oil – and then place the cutlets in the dish on one side then immediately flip them and allow to broil. Cook the cutlets until they are crispy golden brown then flip and repeat. Remove and place on a warmed plate.

Top the cutlet with some arugula, then the cherry tomatoes (cut in half), and the red onion. Squeeze fresh lemon juice sparingly – drizzle some olive oil – season with s&p and top with shavings of Parmegiana cheese. Simple yet outstanding. Enjoy your favorite red wine.