Markets brace for inflation data and central bank moves

This week’s packed calendar of economic releases could set the tone for global markets and crypto, with inflation numbers and central bank decisions in the spotlight.

Markets are entering a critical stretch packed with economic releases and central bank updates. On Wednesday, China will publish its August CPI and PPI, which will give a clearer picture of inflation and deflation risks in the world’s second-largest economy. Weak numbers could signal slowing demand and weigh on global growth sentiment, often spilling over into crypto markets. The same day, the US will release its August PPI at 14:30 CEST, offering insights into upstream price pressures, followed later by the EIA crude oil inventories at 16:30 CEST. Oil balances play a key role in shaping inflation expectations and can move bond yields, indirectly affecting Bitcoin and other risk assets.

Thursday brings the most important release of the week: the US CPI for August, due at 14:30 CEST. Investors see this as a decisive report ahead of the Fed’s September 17 meeting. Softer inflation data would strengthen bets on a Fed rate cut, which tends to boost risk assets, while stronger numbers could reinforce a “higher for longer” policy stance, putting pressure on crypto. On the same day, the European Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision, followed by a press conference in the afternoon. The ECB’s guidance on eurozone liquidity and borrowing costs will influence euro and dollar flows—an important factor since a stronger US dollar often weighs on Bitcoin. Weekly US jobless claims, also at 14:30 CEST, will add another piece to the Fed puzzle by signaling the strength of the labor market.

Friday’s focus will shift to the UK and the US. At 08:00 CEST, the UK reports its July monthly GDP, offering a snapshot of economic momentum that could affect GBP and EUR trading. Later, at 16:00 CEST, the University of Michigan releases its preliminary consumer sentiment index for September, which also includes inflation expectations. While these are secondary indicators compared to US CPI and ECB policy, they still influence the broader risk appetite that drives capital flows into or out of crypto.

Overall, the week’s outcomes will determine whether markets lean toward optimism on easier monetary policy or brace for a longer fight against inflation. For crypto, particularly Bitcoin, the US CPI and ECB decision stand out as the biggest catalysts, while China’s inflation data adds a global risk dimension. Energy market updates and sentiment surveys will provide further nuance to how investors position across risk assets.