Market themes of the Day: All stable on currency front on Friday the 13th

What you need to know before markets open
In Europe

  • German inflation increased 2.1% y/y in June with core inflation rising 1.4% y/y. Inflation was driven by energy prices with butter and fruits marking double-digit price gain. For details read my analysis here.
  • The Eurozone industrial production increased 2.4% y/y in May, accelerating 1.3% over the month.
  • The European Commission’s Summer economic forecast sees GDP slowing down to 2.1% in 2018 and 2019, blaming US trade wars. 
  • The ECB June meeting minutes "widely" cautioned that slowdown was likely to extend into the second quarter in a number of countries, implying near-term risk to economic growth. 
  • Only minor data are due on Friday the 13th in Europe

In the UK

  • The UK lenders reported the unchanged availability of secured credit to households was in the three months to mid-June 2018 and expected no change over the next three months to mid-September 2018.
  • the long-awaited Brexit white paper saw the UK Prime Minister Theresa May dropped the claim of the EU single market access for the UK-based banks while claiming “a principled and practical Brexit”.
  • The Bank of England Deputy Governor Jon Cunliffe is scheduled to speak at the Cumbria Chamber of Commerce at 11:00 GMT.

In the US

  • The US CPI rose 2.9% over the year in June with core inflation up 2.3% y/y in line with market expectations.
  • The Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell said Trump ’s stimulus to boost the economy for "at least" three years.
  • The US Treasury secretary Mnuchin said the US would re-open trade talks if China makes major changes.
  • Michigan consumer sentiment in July and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy report are the most important economic releases on Friday. 

In China

  • China’s trade balance reached a surplus of  $41.61 billion in June with exports rising 11.3% y/y and import up 14.1% y/y.

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