Lower volumes curb CEE Oil import bill

On the radar

• Poland's registered unemployment rate held at 5.8% in August, 0.3pp higher y/y.
• No further relevant releases are scheduled in CEE today.

Economic developments

Geopolitical developments have shaped Europe's energy import bill, though the impact has varied across countries. Disruptions to crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushed Brent as high as USD 118/bbl in late April, while, closer to CEE, the Druzhba pipeline outage interrupted deliveries to Hungary and Slovakia from late January to late April. Eurostat data released on Tuesday show that in the second quarter of 2026, the value of the EU’s petroleum oil imports rose sharply, by 55.8%, however their volume remained mostly stable compared with the monthly average in 2025. For CEE, the picture was different. As the average crude import price per tonne rose by around 57% y/y in both CEE7 and the rest of the EU27, CEE7 volumes fell by 23.5%, while volumes elsewhere rose by 9.2%. The regional crude import bill therefore increased by 19.8%, versus 71.1% for the rest of the EU27. The difference in this case, appears to reflect temporary supply and refinery factors rather than lower exposure. At the same time, higher Croatian crude imports via the Adriatic partly offset the Druzhba shortfall, while planned maintenance at Poland's Płock refinery coincided with weaker purchases. By June, the decline in CEE7 volumes had narrowed to 6.9% y/y, suggesting that the region's import bill will increasingly track global price developments.

Market movements

Rising fiscal and currency considerations remain in focus across CEE. In Croatia, HNB Governor Ante Žigman reiterated that preserving the country’s investment-grade rating requires keeping the budget deficit below 3% of GDP and public debt below 60%, while projecting GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026, well above the expected euro area pace. In Poland, the Ministry of Finance placed nearly PLN 12bn of bonds against PLN 22.5bn of demand, pointing to solid investor appetite despite a more challenging external environment. Meanwhile, Romania’s leu weakened to a fresh record low against the euro, highlighting lingering currency pressures. Other regional currencies also came under pressure, with the PLN and HUF weakening against the EUR, while the USD continued to gain ground against the common currency. This could add to imported inflation pressures if sustained, particularly given the region’s exposure to dollar-denominated commodity prices.

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